Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia

Abstract

Climate change has been affecting agricultural water resources dynamics spatially and temporally. This article presents analysis results of climate change impact on agricultural water availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia. STREAM was utilized to model agricultural water availability through FAO MOSAICC web application. Climate spatial data time-series were generated using 3 Global Climate Model (GCM), i.e.,: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR following two climate change scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5. Model inputs were split into three periods of 1981–2010 (historical), 2010–2039 (near-future), and 2040–2069 (far-future). Historical data model validation showed the efficiency coefficient of the observed and simulated discharge data ratio was 0.68. The results showed a decreasing volumetric water availability from all generated climate data and scenarios, identified by comparing the discharge normal distribution of the historical and future data periods. Whereas, trend analysis of RCP4.5 scenario showed increasing maximum discharge of Cimanuk river using CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-MR GCM’s data, with a Mann–Kendall coefficient of 3.23 and 3.57. These results indicate a different agricultural water balance status within the watershed area, particularly a “very critical” water balance in Indramayu and Majalengka, “critical” in Garut, and “close to critical” in Sumedang Regency.

Hydrological Modeling for Daily Step Flood Forecasts with a Semi Distributed Approach Using the GR4J Model - Camaná River Basin – Arequipa

“…Farmers' knowledge coupled with the actual data analysis may concertedly give a clearer understanding of climate change-related instability and patterns in weather variables, which is critically important for planning and implementing appropriate adaptation measures in their farming against climate change in the Kashmir Valley [17]. The results showed a decreasing volumetric water availability from all generated climate data and scenarios, identified by comparing the discharge normal distribution of the historical and future data periods [10]. CHIRPS proved to be an effective alternative tool for deriving spatio-temporal trends of drought using two important hydrometeorological indices, viz., Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).…”

Building Resilience: Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production Based on Agricultural Infrastructure in West Java Province, Indonesia

“…Another case study about the correlation between irrigation and climate change's adaptation strategy was conducted in Southern Italy by [22], stating that irrigation networks' susceptibility to climate change conditions and water loss will rise in the absence of effective water management and distribution systems. A study by [23] used the STREAM approach to analyze the effects of climate change and the availability of agricultural water in the Cimanuk watershed; the findings indicated that the agriculture water balance within the Cimanuk Watershed was in critical condition. Poor infrastructure was one of the reasons for vulnerability in the Hindu Kush Himalayan area, specifically susceptible to climate change [24].…”