Determination of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in the Porsuk Creek Watershed

Abstract

The wheat is one of the main agricultural products that will be affected by climate change. The aim of the study is to determine the effect of climate change on wheat yield in Porsuk Creek Watershed. In this study, wheat yield analyzes in the Porsuk Creek watershed had been conducted using the past (2016-2017) and future (2020-2100) climate data produced according to the optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios of the HadGEM2-ES global climate model, with the help of the WOFOST model. In the Porsuk Creek Watershed, a +23.8% difference for 2016 and a +1.2% difference for 2017 was determined between the observed and predicted by WOFOST model wheat biomass values (2017 values>2016 values and estimated>observed). According to the optimistic scenario results in the watershed, 0.73% wheat yield increase is expected in the near future (2020-2045). In all other remaining periods; it is estimated that there will be a decrease in wheat yields (between 0.43-1.5%). Compared to reference period (1970-2000), the climate change in the creek watershed will occur in the manner of temperature and precipitation increases in the future. As a result, although WOFOST tends to predict wheat yields greater than the observed values, it is thought that the model can be used with confidence to predict future wheat yields. As a result of this study, important data about the planning of wheat agriculture were produced by estimating the plant yield for the use of decision makers.

Determining the Changing Irrigation Demands of Maize Production in the Cukurova Plain under Climate Change Scenarios with the CROPWAT Model

“…This observation underscores the potential variability in temperature changes that could be experienced under different emissions pathways, further underscoring the complexity of future climate dynamics. Cukurova region could potentially experience a temperature elevation of 3 • C [83].…”

“…This observation underscores the potential variability in temperature changes that could be experienced under different emissions pathways, further underscoring the complexity of future climate dynamics. Cukurova region could potentially experience a temperature elevation of 3 °C [83]. Various methods are available for calculating reference evapotranspiration, such as the Blaney-Criddle, radiation, Penman-Monteith, and pan evaporation methods.…”

Correlation analysis between the Aral Sea shrinkage and the Amu Darya River

“…In general, parametric (e.g., cumulative anomaly and sliding t-test) and non-parametric (e.g., Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt's test, and Bayesian analysis) methods (Hrvatin and Zorn, 2022) are widely used for detecting the change-point in surface runoff as well as the corresponding water volume and lake area. These methods are easy to operate and can deliver relatively robust results when observation data are sufficient and the relationship between the explanatory factors of the lake area and volume variation appears to be relatively simple (Alkan and Konukcu, 2022). As most of these methods are based on statistical parameters, such as Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion (Hrvatin and Zorn, 2022), their produced results do not always align with each other and can even be contradictory (Zhao et al, 2019).…”

Farklı Sulama Aralıkları ve Düzeylerinin Salçalık Domatesin Verim ve Kalite Bileşenlerine Etkileri ve Ekonomik Analizi

“…Irregular and insufficient precipitation caused by the effects of climate change creates a risk in tomato farming and makes irrigation a critical input. Efforts should be made to increase productivity in agricultural production by eliminating the problems caused by climate change [6]. Irrigation and irrigation techniques are becoming increasingly important in agricultural production; however, many regions of the world are faced with a shortage of water for agricultural purposes.…”