Determining the Changing Irrigation Demands of Maize Production in the Cukurova Plain under Climate Change Scenarios with the CROPWAT Model

Abstract

This study delves into the critical issue of climate change and its impact on maize cultivation, focusing on irrigation water requirements (IWR) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) values over three distinct time periods: 1971–2000 (RF), 2025–2054 (P1), and 2069–2098 (P2), under the climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the AR5 of the IPCC via the CROPWAT model. The research reveals significant increases in mean temperatures, particularly during summers, in both scenarios, signifying the substantial influence of climate change on the Cukurova Region’s climate. Daily average evapotranspiration (ETo) values for the study periods demonstrate noteworthy increases, with the most pronounced rise observed in July for P2 under RCP8.5, emphasizing the seasonality and magnitude of the change. Moreover, the study underscores a consistent escalation in irrigation water requirements from RF to P2 periods for both scenarios, highlighting the pressing need for water resource management strategies in agriculture. Under RCP4.5, the study found that average simulated ETc increased by 9.2% for P1 and 11.7% for P2 compared to the RF period. In the harsher RCP8.5 scenario, ETc values displayed a substantial 20.0% increase for P2 and exhibited a wide range of variation across the study periods. In the light of these escalating climate change impacts, this study underscores the imperative of understanding and addressing the challenges encountered in maize cultivation. The findings emphasize the consistent rise in temperature and irrigation demands, underscoring the necessity for proactive adaptive strategies to ensure the sustainability of agricultural practices and long-term food security. As climate change continues to exert its influence, this research serves as a call to action for policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and researchers to prioritize adaptation efforts to safeguard the future of maize production and the global food supply.