Determination of Seroprevalence of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia and Associated Risk Factors in Goats and Sheep Using Classification and Regression Tree

Abstract

Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis is a potentially powerful tool for identifying risk factors associated with contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and the important interactions between them. Our objective was therefore to determine the seroprevalence and identify the risk factors associated with CCPP using CART data mining modeling in the most densely sheep- and goat-populated governorates. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 620 animals (390 sheep, 230 goats) distributed over four governorates in the Nile Delta of Egypt in 2019. The randomly selected sheep and goats from different geographical study areas were serologically tested for CCPP, and the animals’ information was obtained from flock men and farm owners. Six variables (geographic location, species, flock size, age, gender, and communal feeding and watering) were used for risk analysis. Multiple stepwise logistic regression and CART modeling were used for data analysis. A total of 124 (20%) serum samples were serologically positive for CCPP. The highest prevalence of CCPP was between aged animals (>4 y; 48.7%) raised in a flock size ≥200 (100%) having communal feeding and watering (28.2%). Based on logistic regression modeling (area under the curve, AUC = 0.89; 95% CI 0.86 to 0.91), communal feeding and watering showed the highest prevalence odds ratios (POR) of CCPP (POR = 3.7, 95% CI 1.9 to 7.3), followed by age (POR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.8) and flock size (POR = 1.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.2). However, higher-accuracy CART modeling (AUC = 0.92, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.95) showed that a flock size >100 animals is the most important risk factor (importance score = 8.9), followed by age >4 y (5.3) followed by communal feeding and watering (3.1). Our results strongly suggest that the CCPP is most likely to be found in animals raised in a flock size >100 animals and with age >4 y having communal feeding and watering. Additionally, sheep seem to have an important role in the CCPP epidemiology. The CART data mining modeling showed better accuracy than the traditional logistic regression.

Diagnosis of caprine pneumonia: impact of vitamin D deficiency and other risk factors in its incidence

“…This difference with the previous study may be due to the calculation out of total examined goats, but this study was conducted only on affected lungs of dead goats. Increased rate of bronchopneumonia may be associated with the endemic state of pneumonic pasteurellosis and contagious caprinepleuropneumonia, that characterized by this type of inflammation, in Egypt among goat flocks (Abd-Elrahman et al, 2020 and Selim et al, 2021).The fibrino-suppurative inflammatory reactions are characteristic features for acute pulmonary infections due to Pasturella multocida (Ozyildiz et al, 2013 andAmin, 2020). The presence of neutrophils in the exudate of the pulmonary tissue describes the role of neutrophils in clearance of bacterial infection from the pulmonary tissue as a part of immune response (Thacker, 2006).…”

Assessment of the control measures for category A diseases of Animal Health Law: Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia

“…Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast), while some others that experienced CCPP outbreaks did not report to the OIE, e.g. Egypt (Abd‐Elrahman et al., 2019; Selim et al., 2021). Consequently, it is likely that geographical distribution of CCPP is more widespread in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia (Figure 1).…”

“…It has also been used for other species, e.g. gazelles (Lignereux et al., 2018) and sheep (Selim et al., 2021), but the performance of the test in sheep and gazelles is unknown.…”

“…The lack of available laboratory methods to differentiate the different types of mycoplasmas at that time raises questions if it was CCPP infection. CCPP has been Özdemir et al, 2018;Abd-Elrahman et al, 2019;Selim et al, 2021).…”

A mini-review on diagnosis of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia

“…This helps in timely detection, treatment, prevention and control of CCPP. Of the various diagnostics culture and isolation, SAT or LAT, cELISA and PCR remains the most commonly followed tests Selim et al (2021). and Parray et al (2019) used a commercial cELISA kit (IDEXX, Montpellier, France) for studying seroprevalence and evaluating risk factors of CCPP.…”