Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching

Klinger, Sabine; Weber, Enzo

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2016.04.027

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The OEDC series for German real GDP is adjusted for the reunification level shift, but there is still evidence, albeit somewhat weak, in favor of a slope shift. However, previous studies for Germany that use a different set of empirical models (see, inter alia, Klinger andWeber, 2016, andWada, 2016) find evidence of a break in the early 1990s following the reunification. In addition, when using year-on-year growth rates, we find stronger evidence in favor of a structural break in the UK and of second structural break in Germany.…”

Section: Motivationmentioning

confidence: 96%

Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?

Morley

Panovska²

2017

SSRN Journal

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We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ten industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run growth rate into account and, by addressing model uncertainty using equal weights on different forecastbased estimates, is robust to different assumptions about the underlying structure of the economy. For all ten countries in the sample, we find that the estimated output gap has much larger negative movements during recessions than positive movements in expansions, suggesting business cycle asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies. Furthermore, the estimated output gap is always strongly negatively correlated with future output growth and unemployment and positively correlated with capacity utilization. It also implies a convex Phillips Curve in many cases. The model-averaged output gap is reliable in real time in the sense of being subject to relatively small revisions.

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Section: Motivationmentioning

confidence: 96%

Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?

Morley

Panovska²

2017

SSRN Journal

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“…Abbildung 1). Klinger und Weber (2016) zufolge haben sich im Laufe eines Jahres in Rezessionen fast zwei Drittel der konjunkturellen Arbeitslosigkeit in persistente, strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit gewandelt. Das heißt, Arbeitslosigkeit, die einer vorübergehenden Konjunkturschwäche geschuldet war, hat sich über die Zeit verfestigt.…”

Section: Verfestigung Von Arbeitslosigkeit In Rezessionenunclassified

Corona Crisis: Transformative Recession

Hütter

Weber

2020

Wirtschaftsdienst

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Corona-Krise: die transformative Rezession Mit der Corona-Krise nimmt die Arbeitslosigkeit trotz aller Gegenmaßnahmen in Deutschland zu. In früheren Rezessionen hat sich gerade die Arbeitslosigkeit Geringqualifi zierter verfestigt. Heute zeichnet sich ab, dass der technologische Wandel gerade auch mittlere Qualifi kationen betrifft. Um Verfestigung zu vermeiden, ist es wichtig, Neueinstellungen zu fördern, Qualifi zierung zu unterstützen und berufl iche Umorientierung zu ermöglichen.

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“…Arguably, the relentless increase of German unemployment rate up to the mid-2000s was largely due to the combination of technological factors and institutional shortcomings (Ljungqvist andSargent, 1998, Hutter and. While technological changes, such as automation and computerization, increased the pressure on the low-skilled labor market segment, weak institutions, such as inefficient labor market-matching mechanisms and deteriorated employment incentives (Krause andUhlig, 2012, Jung andKuhn, 2014), led to strong hysteresis effects in unemployment (Klinger and Weber, 2016a).…”

Section: A Unemployment Structural Reforms and Labor Market Tightnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany

Klinger¹,

Musayev²,

Natal³

et al. 2019

IMF Working Papers

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German wages have not increased very rapidly in the last decade despite strong employment growth and a 5 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate. Our analysis shows that a large part of the decline in unemployment was structural. Micro-founded Phillips curves fit the German data rather well and suggest that relatively low wage growth can be largely attributed to low inflation expectations and low productivity growth. There is no evidence – from either aggregate or micro-level administrative data – that large immigration flows since 2012 have had dampening effects on aggregate wage growth, as complementarity effects offset composition and competition effects.

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Detecting unemployment hysteresis: A simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching

Cited by 23 publications

References 30 publications

Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?

Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?

Corona Crisis: Transformative Recession

Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany

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