Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions

O’Neill, Brian C.; Liddle, Brantley; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R.; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)60958-1

Cited by 208 publications

(113 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Earlier work, which did not use panel data to mitigate omitted variable bias, finds similar coefficients for population and income per capita [5,6]. More exhaustive reviews of elasticities found in the existing literature, as well as discussions of different estimation techniques and specifications, can be found in O'Neill et al (2012) and Liddle (2014Liddle ( , 2015 [2,15,7].…”

Section: Discussion Of Regression Resultsmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…All three of the time-varying explanatory variables have been found to affect carbon emissions in the existing literature [19,2,15]. The inclusion of age structure, S i,t , is important for our results since changes in fertility patterns mechanically alter the age structure of the population, implying that we need to capture this effect in the economic-demographic model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From a statistical perspective, we build on the existing STIRPAT literature by formally testing the difference in coefficients between population and income per capita and by using an updated dataset for output per person. Second, our work is related to applications of the population-energy-technology (PET) model that estimate the effect of exogenous changes in population and urbanization on carbon emissions [16,3,2]. We build on this literature by expressly examining economic outcomes and by considering a broader range of channels through which changes in fertility affects these economic outcomes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Growth and Carbon Emissions

Casey¹,

Galor²

2016

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E S Population Growth and Carbon Emissions ABSTRACT Population Growth and Carbon Emissions *We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate a version of the STIRPAT equation on an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the coefficient on population is nearly seven times larger than the coefficient on income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. The model was constructed to estimate the effect of lower fertility on economic growth, making it well-suited for this application. We find that by 2100 C.E., moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results strongly suggest that population policies should be a part of the approach to combating global climate change.JEL Classification: J11, O40, Q50

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Section: Discussion Of Regression Resultsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Growth and Carbon Emissions

Casey¹,

Galor²

2016

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“…Rosa et al [21] collected the cross-sectional data and found that the population elasticity was close to 1. O'Neill et al [22] also believed that the impact of population on carbon emission was only manifested by the scale effect, while controlling other influencing factors, with elasticity close to 1. Ping [23] also obtained a similar conclusion.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Population Structure Change on Carbon Emission in China

2016

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This paper expanded the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model through the introduction of urbanization, residents' consumption, and other factors, and decomposed carbon emission changes in China into carbon emission factor effect, energy intensity effect, consumption inhibitory factor effect, urbanization effect, residents' consumption effect, and population scale effect, and then explored contribution rates and action mechanisms of the above six factors on change in carbon emissions in China. Then, the effect of population structure change on carbon emission was analyzed by taking 2003-2012 as a sample period, and combining this with the panel data of 30 provinces in China. Results showed that in 2003-2012, total carbon emission increased by 4.2117 billion tons in China. The consumption inhibitory factor effect, urbanization effect, residents' consumption effect, and population scale effect promoted the increase in carbon emissions, and their contribution ratios were 27.44%, 12.700%, 74.96%, and 5.90%, respectively. However, the influence of carbon emission factor effect (´2.54%) and energy intensity effect (´18.46%) on carbon emissions were negative. Population urbanization has become the main population factor which affects carbon emission in China. The "Eastern aggregation" phenomenon caused the population scale effect in the eastern area to be significantly higher than in the central and western regions, but the contribution rate of its energy intensity effect (´11.10 million tons) was significantly smaller than in the central (´21.61 million tons) and western regions (´13.29 million tons), and the carbon emission factor effect in the central area (´3.33 million tons) was significantly higher than that in the eastern (´2.00 million tons) and western regions (´1.08 million tons). During the sample period, the change in population age structure, population education structure, and population occupation structure relieved growth of carbon emissions in China, but the effects of change of population, urban and rural structure, regional economic level, and population size generated increases in carbon emissions. Finally, the change of population sex structure had no significant influence on changes in carbon emissions.

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“…poverty reduction, gender equity, and improvements in education, health and environmental conservation. [6][7][8] It is also clear that access to family planning has a beneficial impact on several of the newly proposed global development objectives. For example, with regard to sustainable livelihoods and job growth, family planning programmes can reduce unwanted fertility in resource-poor settings.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%