Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

Lu, Liang; Nguyen, Ruby T.; Rahman, M. Mostafizur; Winfree, Jason A.

doi:10.3386/w29166

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…Several studies are being conducted to examine how stochastic shocks (e.g. extreme weather events, COVID-19) at one node in a supply chain can affect several other agents in a supply chain, such as Zilberman et al (2022), Lu et al (2021) and Baqaee and Farhi (2020). In this paper, we have considered different sectoral interactions based on IO tables, matching real-world trade with gross output precisely and predicting counterfactual outcomes.…”

Section: Modeling Framework and Related Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model

Feng

Jia

2023

CAER

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PurposeConsidering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world.Design/methodology/approachThe authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security.FindingsFirst, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity.Originality/valueThis study analyzed the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.

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Section: Modeling Framework and Related Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…extreme weather events, COVID-19) at one node in a supply chain can affect several other agents in a supply chain, such as Zilberman et al . (2022), Lu et al . (2021) and Baqaee and Farhi (2020).…”

Section: Modeling Framework and Related Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model

Feng

Jia

2023

CAER

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“…Second, our scope of the analysis is limited to decisions within agricultural production stage. This work can be extended to analyze the exogenous effect from other agents along the agricultural supply chain (see for example [39][40][41][42] on lastest developments of modelling agricultural supply chains). Third, some of these relationships are estimated in this study using simple statistical methods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Smart Pest Management

Elbakidze

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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This study examines the role of weather and pest infestation forecasts in agricultural pest management, taking into account potential correlation between weather and pest population prediction errors. First, we analytically illustrate the role of the correlation between weather and pest infestation forecast errors in pest management using a stochastic optimal control framework. Next, using stochastic dynamic programming, we empirically simulate optimal pest management trajectory within a growing season, taking into account correlation between weather and pest population prediction errors. We used lentil production in the Palouse area of northern Idaho and eastern Washington as a case study, where pesticide use was restricted due to environmental or health reasons. We showed that the benefit of applying pesticides later in the growing season can outweigh benefits of early application when pesticide use is restricted due to environmental or health regulations. The value of information is close to $9 per acre, approximately 8% of the expected net returns per acre, and close to $12 per acre ($106–$94), or approximately 13% of the expected net returns per acre for the baseline versus the climate change scenarios, respectively.

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“…Section 3.2 describes the methodology for estimating fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. We developed a Python library called PyEmission (Rahman and Nguyen, 2021) and utilized it to estimate vehicular emissions. The user can optimize travel distance, travel time, or CO 2 emissions.…”

Section: Vehicle Routing Optimizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Logistics Planning Tool for E-Waste Collection: Streamlining Sustainability and Efficiency

Rahman,

Nguyen,

Hartley

et al. 2023

Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management

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We have developed a vehicle routing problem (VRP) optimization tool aimed at improving the efficiency of e-waste collection and logistics systems. Given the geospatial dispersion of electronic waste (e-waste), an effective reverse logistics system is crucial for successful recycling efforts. Our tool combines guided local search and k-opt algorithms to optimize travel routes for fleets of heterogeneous vehicles. To ensure accurate calculations, the tool utilizes the Open Street Map API, which provides actual road network data for calculating travel distances and time. Furthermore, we have incorporated a comprehensive emission model that accurately quantifies vehicular emissions. By doing so, we can generate optimized solutions with an average optimality gap of 2.2% compared to known best solutions of benchmark VRPs within a time limit of 30 seconds. It also generates an interactive map showing color-coded vehicle routes and collecting nodes' information. The effectiveness of the tool has been tested with real data from our industry partner. Out developed VRP optimization tool comes with a graphical user interface that can provide optimized routes and quantify-environmental emissions, actual travel distance, and cost within a reasonable amount of time. It has been released as an open-source software. The tool can potentially be utilized for minimizing carbon dioxide emissions from commercial vehicles to mitigate greenhouse gas impacts.

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Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

Cited by 9 publications

References 13 publications

Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model

Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model

Climate Smart Pest Management

A Logistics Planning Tool for E-Waste Collection: Streamlining Sustainability and Efficiency

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