PurposeConsidering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world.Design/methodology/approachThe authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security.FindingsFirst, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity.Originality/valueThis study analyzed the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.
Adopting an instrumental-variable (IV) approach, this paper explored the potential effects of internet usage time on household consumption with data from the 2014, 2016, and 2018 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). After completing mechanism tests, we found that longer internet usage time was linked to greater household consumption through increased engagement with online shopping, more frequent retrieval of online information, and more online socializing. Moreover, the results suggested that families living in rural areas, and central and western regions tended to consume more as their internet usage time increased.
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