Delay of the First Transition of Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming Condition

Inoue, Tomoshige; Ueda, Hiroaki

doi:10.2151/sola.2011-021

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…[17] Previous studies have reported that a weakening or a reversal of the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere plays a substantial role in the onset of the Asian summer monsoon [e.g., Li and Yanai, 1996;Ueda and Yasunari, 1998;Inoue and Ueda, 2011]. In the present study, we analyzed the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) at 300 hPa, similar to Inoue and Ueda [2011].…”

Section: The Difference In the Evolution Of The South Asian Summer Momentioning

confidence: 91%

Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the onsetof the summer monsoon in South Asia: The role of the air‐sea interaction

et al. 2013

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[1] Using both a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) and an atmospheric GCM, we investigate the effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the onset of the South Asian summer monsoon by conducting simulations with and without the TP. In the coupled GCM, the presence of the TP causes the monsoon onset to occur approximately 15 days later in the Arabian Sea (AS) and India (ID) and approximately 10 days earlier in the Bay of Bengal (BB). These changes are attributed to different atmospheric circulation patterns and different conditions within the adjacent oceans, such as the AS and the BB. When the TP is included, lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the AS contribute to a stable lower atmosphere, which suppresses convection over the AS and ID in May. In contrast, low pressure over South Asia, caused by the TP, induces a southwesterly toward the BB that transports a substantial amount of water vapor to the BB. This flow results in an earlier monsoon in the BB. Without the TP, higher SSTs that are formed in the AS in May destabilize the lower atmosphere and create a depression, resulting in an earlier onset of the monsoon over the AS and ID. Consequently, the cyclonic circulation spreads abruptly to the BB, and precipitation begins to increase over the BB. Therefore, the air-sea interaction in the adjacent ocean under the influence of the TP strongly modulates the onset of the South Asian summer monsoon. This modulation was verified by the atmospheric GCM experiments.Citation: Abe, M., M. Hori, T. Yasunari, and A. Kitoh (2013), Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the onset of the summer monsoon in South Asia: The role of the air-sea interaction,

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Section: The Difference In the Evolution Of The South Asian Summer Momentioning

confidence: 91%

Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the onsetof the summer monsoon in South Asia: The role of the air‐sea interaction

et al. 2013

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“…The ASM is driven by a large-scale thermal contrast between the Asian landmass and the neighboring oceans (Li and Yanai 1996;Ueda and Yasunari 1998). The onset of the ASM (the first transition) was projected to be delayed under global warming (Inoue and Ueda 2011). According to Inoue and Ueda (2011), this delay is caused by the delay of the reversal of the thermal contrast in the upper troposphere.…”

Section: Future Changes To the Baiu Frontal Zone And Moisture Fluxmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The onset of the ASM (the first transition) was projected to be delayed under global warming (Inoue and Ueda 2011). According to Inoue and Ueda (2011), this delay is caused by the delay of the reversal of the thermal contrast in the upper troposphere. We investigate the future change of temperature in the upper troposphere according to Ueda et al (2006).…”

Section: Future Changes To the Baiu Frontal Zone And Moisture Fluxmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding the large-scale atmospheric circulation, Inoue and Ueda (2011) reported that the first transition over the Indochina Peninsula is projected to be delayed at the end of the 21st century under the SRES A1B scenario compared with the present-day climate. In general, this transition in the present-day climate takes place in response to the reversal of meridional thermal gradient in the upper troposphere between the Asian continent and the tropics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first transition is concurrent with the acceleration of monsoonal westerlies in the lower troposphere, extending from the BOB through the WNP (Li and Yanai 1996). However, in the future climate, the temperature rise in the upper troposphere is projected to be larger over the equatorial Indian Ocean than over the Asian continent in May (Ueda et al 2006;Inoue and Ueda 2011), weakening the ASM circulation. Similar weakening signal of the ASM circulation was found in most of CMIP3 model projections in June, July, and August (Kitoh et al 1997;Ueda et al 2006;Hirahara et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Changes in Atmospheric Conditions for the Seasonal Evolution of the Baiu as Revealed from Projected AGCM Experiments

Okada

Takemi

Ishikawa

et al. 2017

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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This study investigates future changes in atmospheric circulation during the Baiu in Japan using 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations for the present-day and the future (2075-2099) climates under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. The simulated future climates include the outputs obtained with one control sea surface temperature (SST) and three different SST patterns.

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Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Tung

Wang

Chu

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu, produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

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Delay of the First Transition of Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming Condition

Cited by 10 publications

References 19 publications

Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the onsetof the summer monsoon in South Asia: The role of the air‐sea interaction

Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the onsetof the summer monsoon in South Asia: The role of the air‐sea interaction

Future Changes in Atmospheric Conditions for the Seasonal Evolution of the Baiu as Revealed from Projected AGCM Experiments

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

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