Future Changes in Atmospheric Conditions for the Seasonal Evolution of the Baiu as Revealed from Projected AGCM Experiments

Okada, Y.; Takemi, Tetsuya; Ishikawa, Hirohiko; Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2017-013

Cited by 22 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(84 reference statements)

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“…Some regions showed reasonably high contributions from the difference in future SST patterns to the total uncertainties, for example, the Nansei Islands in June and western Japan during July-August. Recently, Okada et al (2017) revealed that the differences in future SST patterns in July and August have significant impact on the termination timing of the baiu season, whereas the mean circulation changes in June are similar across all SST patterns. Figure 8 also shows future changes in climatological-mean moisture flux during June-August for three representatives out of six SST patterns according to Mizuta et al (2014), which support the results of Okada et al (2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Monthly Extreme Precipitation in Japan Using Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulations

Hatsuzuka

Sato

2019

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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This study investigated future changes in monthly extreme precipitation in Japan during summer (June–August). The uncertainties in estimating extreme monthly precipitation were analyzed using large-ensemble regional climate simulations for both present and 4-K warmer climates. The main diagnostics were based on the 100-yr return values of monthly total precipitation PT100 estimated from a best-fit probability distribution. Under the warmer climate, PT100 was projected to increase in approximately 87%, 88%, and 78% of the total number of stations for June, July, and August, respectively, suggesting that once-per-century monthly precipitation will increase as temperature increases over a wide area of Japan, although large regional variations will exist. The western part of Kyushu and the Hokkaido region showed significant and moderately robust increases in PT100 throughout the summer months. In contrast, a considerable and robust increase was projected only in June in the Nansei Islands. The percentage change in PT100 was small in western and eastern Japan, and thus the sign of the change was uncertain. Further analysis indicated that uncertainty in internal variability is more important than uncertainty in the SST scenario for future projections of monthly precipitation extremes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Monthly Extreme Precipitation in Japan Using Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulations

Hatsuzuka

Sato

2019

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…Consequently, the term "future change" is defined here as the difference between 2075 -2099 and 1980 -2004 mean values, whereas the term "climatology" refers to the 25-year mean. Although the results are dependent to some degree on the prescribed future SST changes (e.g., Endo et al 2012;Kusunoki 2017;Okada et al 2017), the present study concerns the three-model ensemble experiments using the CMIP5 ensemble mean SST. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) (Adler et al 2003) and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55 reanalysis) (Kobayashi et al 2015) are used for the comparison of precipitation and atmospheric elements between the simulated and the observed present-day climatology.…”

Section: Experimental Data For Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, MRI-AGCM3.2 has been employed in conjunction with CMIP-derived and observed sea surface temperature (SST) data to explore the detailed patterns of regional climate under global warming scenarios (Kitoh et al 2016). Okada et al (2017) analyzed global warming experiments using the 20 km mesh version of MRI-AGCM 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2S) to assess seasonal evolution of atmospheric conditions for the Baiu in the future. They showed that the Baiu frontal zone remains south of Japan in June and that the end date of the Baiu depends on the future distribution of SSTs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They showed that the Baiu frontal zone remains south of Japan in June and that the end date of the Baiu depends on the future distribution of SSTs. In a similar study, Kusunoki (2017) summarized a series of global warming simulations undertaken using various versions of MRI-AGCM3.2, SST changes, and emission scenarios. That study reported a pattern of delayed termination or delayed onset of the East Asian rainy season under future climate conditions, depending on the simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characteristics of Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in MRI-AGCM Global Warming Experiments

Ose¹

2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Global warming experiments using three different 60 km mesh atmospheric global circulation models are studied to characterize ensemble mean future changes in monthly East Asian precipitation for June to August. During the summer, wetting and drying effects due to changes in the mean vertical motion play a key role in future precipitation changes, as does the "wet-get-wetter" effect due to increased moisture. The former processes are related adiabatically to the projected modification of 500 hPa horizontal atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by two cyclonic circulation anomalies extending over the eastern Eurasian Continent (C1) and the western North Pacific Ocean (C2) for each month. Over Japan, the western edge of C2 shifts from a region south of the Japanese Islands to northern Japan during June to August, representing a delayed northward movement or southward shift of the westerly jet over the western North Pacific in the future compared with the present-day climatology. Most regions of Japan lie within the northeasterly wind and associated downward-motion zones of C2, leading to significant uncertainties in future precipitation over Japan by the offset against the "wet-get-wetter" effect and possibly even a future decrease in precipitation. A wetter future climate is anticipated under weak subsidence or upward vertical motion zone of C2, such as western Japan in August away from C2, and the Southwest Islands of Japan in June in the C2 southwesterly wind zone. Over the eastern Eurasian Continent, C1 is distributed mainly over northeastern China in June and over central and southern China in July and August, respectively. During these months, most of the eastern regions are located within the southwesterly to southeasterly wind zone of C1, indicating wet future conditions due to enhanced upward motion. This tendency drives a further increase in precipitation in future wetter East Asian climate via the "wet-get-wetter" effect and the increased evaporation.

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“…Although the ensemble number of the MRI-AGCM runs is not sufficient to derive reliable probabilities, uncertainty and robustness of the projected changes are derived. Okada et al (2016) used the outputs from the presentclimate simulation and the 4 ensemble future-climate projections from MRI-AGCM to investigate the projected changes in atmospheric circulation during the Baiu season. They indicated the delayed northward shift of the Baiu front in June and the resulting decrease in rainfall in western Japan in June.…”

Section: Probabilistic Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan: Philosophy and achievements of the SOUSEI program

Takemi

Okada

Ito

et al. 2016

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:We review the philosophy and achievements of the research activity on assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan under Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI). The concept of this research project consists of assessing worstclass meteorological hazards and evaluating probabilistic information on the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena. Worst-scenario analyses for historical extreme typhoons and probabilistic analyses on Baiu, warm-season rainfalls, and strong winds with the use of high-performance climate model outputs are described. Collaboration among the fields in meteorology, hydrology, coastal engineering, and forest science plays a key role in advancing the impact assessment of meteorological hazards and risks. Based on the present research activity, possible future directions are given.

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Future Changes in Atmospheric Conditions for the Seasonal Evolution of the Baiu as Revealed from Projected AGCM Experiments

Cited by 22 publications

References 41 publications

Future Changes in Monthly Extreme Precipitation in Japan Using Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulations

Future Changes in Monthly Extreme Precipitation in Japan Using Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulations

Characteristics of Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in MRI-AGCM Global Warming Experiments

Assessing the impacts of global warming on meteorological hazards and risks in Japan: Philosophy and achievements of the SOUSEI program

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