Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat

Xie, Wei; Xiong, Wei; Pan, Jie; Ali, Tariq; Cui, Qi; Guan, Dabo; Meng, Jing; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Lin, Erda; Davis, Steven J.

doi:10.1038/s41477-018-0263-1

Cited by 174 publications

(130 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Simulating historical wheat yield by generic to specific parameterization of GGCM ensemble. A range of parameterization strat egies has been employed separately in previous studies for global simulations 5,6,16 , reflecting the different levels of complexity and data required to calibrate models so that they can reproduce historical observations. Four parameterization strategies (PS) were used here with increasingly specific information on wheat cultivar use across the globe.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…I n the global gridded crop model (GGCM) approach, the world is divided into grid cells defined by latitude and longitude, and crop yield for the landmass in each grid cell is simulated [1][2][3][4] . To estimate the potential impact of climate change on food produc tion, researchers aggregate simulated results into nations, regions or the world to aid economic analysis and inform policymaking at different scales 5,6 . To be deemed trustworthy, GGCM results must provide accurate estimates of yield-climate relationships, or other wise give explicit information of the uncertainty of projections.…”

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Different uncertainty distribution between high and low latitudes in modelling warming impacts on wheat

et al. 2019

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I n the global gridded crop model (GGCM) approach, the world is divided into grid cells defined by latitude and longitude, and crop yield for the landmass in each grid cell is simulated 1-4 . To estimate the potential impact of climate change on food produc tion, researchers aggregate simulated results into nations, regions or the world to aid economic analysis and inform policymaking at different scales 5,6 . To be deemed trustworthy, GGCM results must provide accurate estimates of yield-climate relationships, or other wise give explicit information of the uncertainty of projections. Current crop models produce different results due to underlying differences in climate projections, model structure, inputs and parameterization, so overall there is a large degree of uncertainty in crop yield projections 1 . An effective way to quantify this uncer tainty is to compare multiple climate-crop simulations of the same climate change problem 7,8 . Most current impact assessments are conducted for just a few wellcharacterized sites 9-12 , so while model accuracy can be improved through understanding where and how uncertainty arises in a multimodel ensemble 13 , the uncertainty of predictions across the mass of diverse arable lands around the world is difficult to estimate.Estimating impact consistently across the globe by applying a GGCM ensemble is expensive and difficult in terms of labour, tim ing, computational ability and resources, and expertise. Compared with crop modelling at individual sites, GGCMs introduce additional sources of uncertainty such as those that arise from geospatial data and data processing. For example, recent GGCM ensemble studies compared simulation results from different research groups 14 . Even when committed to following a common simulation protocol 15 , groups adopted their unique ways of processing data and param eterizing the models for the globe. A further aspect that has received insufficient attention in GGCMs is model parameterization and how it can affect the uncertainty of globalscale predictions, par ticularly for parameters describing localscale spatial variation in the use and performance of cultivars, varieties or hybrids.Here we present a range of global wheat yield responses to future warming scenarios based on a large simulation ensemble. The ensemble was composed of 1,440 global simulations, with combina tions of 20 climate projections (5 climate models under 4 representa tive concentration pathways (RCPs) for greenhouse gas emissions), 3 crop models, 4 parameterization strategies and 3 management inputs of sowing date ( Supplementary Fig. 1). We linked the uncer tainty of gridded predictions to the latitude of grid cells. To include the uncertainty of crop yield predictions due to CO 2 fertilization, we conducted two sets of simulations: the first accounted for the effects of both increased CO 2 as projected by the RCPs and changes in climate (CC w/CO 2 ); the second accounted for changes in climate at 360 ppm CO 2 , assuming CO 2 concentration would remain constant at its...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

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confidence: 99%

Different uncertainty distribution between high and low latitudes in modelling warming impacts on wheat

et al. 2019

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“…The ND85F isolate has been used to screen barley genotypes for spot blotch resistance for over 20 years (10). The BS035 isolate was isolated from Hordeum jubatum and determined to be pathotype 0 by screening on the barley differentials and other cultivars (2). The isolates, inoculation procedure and ratings are described in SI.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although barley is not a staple food crop, it possesses unique malting characteristics that are valued for the production of beer and spirits; multi-billion dollar industries across the world. Recent studies predicted that climate change presents a threat to barley production due to higher temperatures and water deficiencies (2). Although, climate change results in drought stricken regions, others experience excess precipitation (3) and combined with elevated temperatures will provide environments more conducive to the development of fungal disease epidemics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although, climate change results in drought stricken regions, others experience excess precipitation (3) and combined with elevated temperatures will provide environments more conducive to the development of fungal disease epidemics. Thus, climate change will exacerbate disease problems in areas experiencing excess precipitation, which was not addressed in the recent predictions of future barley shortages suggesting it could be worse than predicted (2).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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rcs5-mediated spot blotch resistance in barley is conferred by wall-associated kinases that resist pathogen manipulation

Ameen

Solanki

Drader

et al. 2020

Preprint

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27Plant biotrophic pathogen disease resistances rely on immunity receptor-mediated programmed 28 cell death (PCD) responses, but specialized necrotrophic/hemi-biotrophic pathogens hijack these 29 mechanisms to colonize the resulting dead tissue in their necrotrophic phase. Thus, immunity receptors 30 can become necrotrophic pathogen dominant susceptibility targets but resistance mechanisms that resist 31 necrotroph manipulation are recessive resistance genes. The barley rcs5 QTL imparts recessive resistance 32 against the disease spot blotch caused by the hemi-biotrophic fungal pathogen Bipolaris sorokiniana. The 33 rcs5 genetic interval was delimited to ~0.23 cM, representing an ~234 kb genomic region containing four 34 wall-associated kinase (WAK) genes, designated HvWak2, Sbs1, Sbs2 (susceptibility to Bipolaris 35 sorokiniana 1&2), and HvWak5. Post-transcriptional gene silencing of Sbs1&2 in susceptible barley 36 cultivars resulted in resistance showing dominant susceptibility function. Allele analysis of Sbs1&2 from 37 resistant and susceptible barley cultivars identified sequence polymorphisms associated with phenotypes 38in their primary coding sequence and promoter regions, suggesting differential transcriptional regulation 39 may contribute to susceptibility. Transcript analysis of Sbs1&2 showed nearly undetectable expression in 40 resistant and susceptible cultivars prior to pathogen challenge; however, upregulation of both genes 41 occurred specifically in susceptible cultivars post-inoculation with a virulent isolate. Apoplastic wash 42 fluids collected from barley infected with a virulent isolate induced Sbs1, suggesting regulation by an 43 apoplastic-secreted effector. Thus, Sbs1&2 function as B. sorokiniana susceptibility targets and non-44 functional alleles or alleles that resist induction by the pathogen mediate rcs5-recessive resistance. The 45 sbs1&2 alleles underlying the rcs5 QTL that the pathogen is unable to manipulate are the first resistance 46 genes identified against spot blotch. 47Bipolaris sorokiniana 1 and 2) as wall-associated kinases. These genes are hijacked by the 53 hemibiotrophic pathogen in its necrotrophic phase to induce programmed cell death, facilitating disease 54 development. We report the first spot blotch resistance/susceptibility genes cloned that function via alleles 55 that cannot be specifically induced and hijacked by virulent isolates of the pathogen. 56 study on a large breeding panel provided a comprehensive assessment of the genetic architecture of this 79 durable spot blotch resistance, identifying three quantitative trait loci (QTL): Rcs-qtl-1H-11_10764, Rcs-80 qtl-3H-11_10565 and Rcs-qtl-7H-11_20162. Of these QTL, Rcs-qtl-7H-11_20162 conferred the largest 81 allelic effect across different populations (10) with several genetic studies positioning rcs5 within the 82 interval of this chromosome 7H QTL (9-11). Thus, the gene/s underlying the rcs5 QTL is an important 83 target for cloning and functional characterization, which was the objective of this study. 8...

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Impact of extreme temperatures on production of different rice types: A county‐level analysis for China

Deng

Xie

Wang³

2022

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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The response of China's rice yield to climate change is crucial for ensuring food security for China and the globe. However, previous studies have focused on the impact of climate change on a specific rice type or rice as a whole. For the first time, this study combines a new set of the early, middle, and late rice production data and daily weather data at the county level to comprehensively estimate the heterogeneous yield response to extreme temperatures in China. Along with the projections of future temperature and precipitation, we also forecast the potential yield losses when exposed to higher future warming trends. The results show that holding current growing regions and calendars fixed, the yield of popular middle and late rice types will drop by 5.7% ± 1.5% and 11% ± 4.5% under the most extreme scenario compared to no climate change scenarios by the end of this century (2070-2090 average). These results imply that recent structural changes in favor of producing these popular types of rice may satisfy the demand for high-quality rice but may also increase the risks of climate change to the food supply in China. Therefore, more efforts should be concentrated on incorporating this type of heterogeneity in climatic impacts into national and regional plans for the agricultural adaptation.

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Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat

Cited by 174 publications

References 60 publications

Different uncertainty distribution between high and low latitudes in modelling warming impacts on wheat

Different uncertainty distribution between high and low latitudes in modelling warming impacts on wheat

rcs5-mediated spot blotch resistance in barley is conferred by wall-associated kinases that resist pathogen manipulation

Impact of extreme temperatures on production of different rice types: A county‐level analysis for China

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