Impact of extreme temperatures on production of different rice types: A county‐level analysis for China

Abstract

The response of China's rice yield to climate change is crucial for ensuring food security for China and the globe. However, previous studies have focused on the impact of climate change on a specific rice type or rice as a whole. For the first time, this study combines a new set of the early, middle, and late rice production data and daily weather data at the county level to comprehensively estimate the heterogeneous yield response to extreme temperatures in China. Along with the projections of future temperature and precipitation, we also forecast the potential yield losses when exposed to higher future warming trends. The results show that holding current growing regions and calendars fixed, the yield of popular middle and late rice types will drop by 5.7% ± 1.5% and 11% ± 4.5% under the most extreme scenario compared to no climate change scenarios by the end of this century (2070-2090 average). These results imply that recent structural changes in favor of producing these popular types of rice may satisfy the demand for high-quality rice but may also increase the risks of climate change to the food supply in China. Therefore, more efforts should be concentrated on incorporating this type of heterogeneity in climatic impacts into national and regional plans for the agricultural adaptation.