Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

Edelenbosch, O.Y.; McCollum, David; Vuuren, Detlef van; Bertram, Christoph; Carrara, Samuel; Daly, Hannah; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Kitous, Alban; Kyle, Page; Broin, Eoin Ó; Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis; Sano, Fuminori

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.07.003

Cited by 111 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The Laspeyres indices were estimated for decomposition analysis to detect how much each factor such as transport activity, modal structure, energy intensity, and fuel mix contributes to the projected emission pathways [58][59][60]. Transport activity growth is the major contributor to emissions for both passenger and freight transport in all scenarios, as shown in figure 5.…”

Section: Main Indicators Of the Reference Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Zhang

Fujimori

Hanaoka

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The transport sector contributes around a quarter of global CO 2 emissions; thus, low-carbon transport policies are required to achieve the 2 • C and 1.5 • C targets. In this paper, representative transport policy scenarios are structured with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the interaction between the transport sector and the macroeconomy. To accomplish this, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Transport (AIM/Transport) model, coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE), is used to simulate the potential for different transport policy interventions to reduce emissions and cost over the period 2005-2100. The results show that deep decarbonization in the transport sector can be achieved by implementing transport policies such as energy efficiency improvements, vehicle technology innovations particularly the deployment of electric vehicles, public transport developments, and increasing the car occupancy rate. Technological transformations such as vehicle technological innovations and energy efficiency improvements provide the most significant reduction potential. The key finding is that low-carbon transport policies can reduce the carbon price, gross domestic product loss rate, and welfare loss rate generated by climate mitigation policies to limit global warming to 2 • C and 1.5 • C. Interestingly, the contribution of transport policies is more effective for stringent climate change targets in the 1.5 • C scenario, which implies that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policy is required. The transport sector requires attention to achieve the goal of stringent climate change mitigation.

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Section: Main Indicators Of the Reference Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Zhang

Fujimori

Hanaoka

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…As the demand for gasoline decreases due to electrification of passenger transport the production of the other oil products (including naphtha) may decrease as well as they are produced with fixed ratios. As electrification is seen as a very important measure for reducing GHG emissions from the transport sector, the analysis of substituting naphtha should be part of integrated assessment studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways for a Brazilian biobased economy: towards optimal utilization of biomass

Lap

Benders

Köberle

et al. 2019

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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Biomass is responsible for 25% of the primary energy supply in Brazil. However, future biomass demand will be influenced by many factors. This study evaluates potential pathways for the utilization of biomass in Brazil until 2050, while considering novel biobased sectors (renewable jet fuel and biochemicals), resource competition, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whereas other least‐cost optimization models assess biobased options to meet energy and chemicals demand in Brazil to a limited extent, this study provides a detailed breakdown of biomass feedstock, including an extensive portfolio of biomass conversion technologies. A least‐cost optimization model is used to assess the demand for energy and chemicals, and the competition between biomass and other climate‐mitigation measures such as renewable power generation technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and energy efficiency. Varied over the three scenarios, 86–96% of the sustainable biomass supply potential is used. Under more stringent mitigation targets, novel biomass conversion technologies start to play an important role: Biobased electricity production with CCS, jet fuel production from lignocellulosic biomass, and chemicals are partly produced from ethanol and bio‐naphtha. The modeling framework provides a transparent view of which type of biomass can be used for which specific purpose. It is therefore an interesting tool for future research, for example to examine the dynamic interaction with demand for land. © 2019 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…Land management plays a key role in future strategies for climate change mitigation. Many future scenarios envision extensive land use transitions, especially under stringent temperature targets [1][2][3][4][5]. In the different Shared Socio-economic Pathways, global forest areas are predicted to change from about −500 Mha up to + 1000 Mha in 2100, and between 200 and 1500 million ha of land will be required to grow bioenergy crops [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the climate response to extreme land cover changes in Europe with a regional model

Cherubini

Huang

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

Cited by 111 publications

References 33 publications

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Pathways for a Brazilian biobased economy: towards optimal utilization of biomass

Quantifying the climate response to extreme land cover changes in Europe with a regional model

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