The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Abstract

The transport sector contributes around a quarter of global CO 2 emissions; thus, low-carbon transport policies are required to achieve the 2 • C and 1.5 • C targets. In this paper, representative transport policy scenarios are structured with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the interaction between the transport sector and the macroeconomy. To accomplish this, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Transport (AIM/Transport) model, coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE), is used to simulate the potential for different transport policy interventions to reduce emissions and cost over the period 2005-2100. The results show that deep decarbonization in the transport sector can be achieved by implementing transport policies such as energy efficiency improvements, vehicle technology innovations particularly the deployment of electric vehicles, public transport developments, and increasing the car occupancy rate. Technological transformations such as vehicle technological innovations and energy efficiency improvements provide the most significant reduction potential. The key finding is that low-carbon transport policies can reduce the carbon price, gross domestic product loss rate, and welfare loss rate generated by climate mitigation policies to limit global warming to 2 • C and 1.5 • C. Interestingly, the contribution of transport policies is more effective for stringent climate change targets in the 1.5 • C scenario, which implies that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policy is required. The transport sector requires attention to achieve the goal of stringent climate change mitigation.

Land transport CO2 emissions and climate change: evidence from Cyprus

“…Technological policy interventions such as deep electrification in the transport sector create the largest positive effects on emission reduction, but cannot alone achieve the decarbonisation targets due to their longer-term performance (Zhang, Fujimori, and Hanaoka 2018). Brand, Cluzel, and Anable (2017) showed for the UK that the mass market electrification of the car market cannot alone achieve deep cuts in carbon emissions.…”

“…Therefore, setting the transport sector on a low-carbon development pathway is necessary for mitigating climate change and stabilising global warming below 2°C (Lah 2017). Several studies have shown that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policies are required (Zhang, Fujimori, and Hanaoka 2018). However, it is widely acknowledged that current measures in most countries will not be sufficient to bring transport on to a 2°C pathway (Lah 2015).…”

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

“…A global transport model was employed to provide spatially flexible and temporally dynamic simulations of transport demand, energy use, and emissions with consideration given to various technological factors such as device cost, speed, travel time, load factor, and preferences. The transport model was developed as a one-year interval, recursive-type transport choice model, which is described in detail in Zhang et al (2018) [29]. A summary of the model structure and its equations is provided in the supplementary information, available online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/15/034019/mmedia.…”

Identification of Key Factors to Reduce Transport-Related Air Pollutants and CO2 Emissions in Asia

“…Personal travel behaviors are reportedly important for reducing CO 2 and air pollutant emissions [5][6][7][8][9]. This can include individual attitudes toward electrification of transportation and the promotion of high technology and public transportation.…”

“…Market shares of each mode and technology are then calculated using the multinomial logit (MNL-type) equation. This model is widely used for impact assessment in the transportation sector [7,18,19].…”