Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System: Integrated Modeling of the Transformation of Electricity, Transportation, and Industrial Sectors

Abstract

To achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal, current energy systems must be transformed. Australia represents an interesting case for energy system transformation modeling: with a power system dominated by fossil fuels and, specifically, with a heavy coal component, there is at the same time a vast potential for expansion and use of renewables. We used the multi-sectoral Australian Energy Modeling System (AUSeMOSYS) to perform an integrated analysis of implications for the electricity, transport, and selected industry sectors to the mid-century. The state-level resolution allows representation of regional discrepancies in renewable supply and the quantification of inter-regional grid extensions necessary for the physical integration of variable renewables. We investigated the impacts of different CO2 budgets and selected key factors on energy system transformation. Results indicate that coal-fired generation has to be phased out completely by 2030 and a fully renewable electricity supply achieved in the 2030s according to the cost-optimal pathway implied by the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement-compatible carbon budget. Wind and solar PV can play a dominant role in decarbonizing Australia’s energy system with continuous growth of demand due to the strong electrification of linked energy sectors.

A review of 100% renewable energy scenarios on islands

“…Hong et al (2014) claim that a low-carbon power system would require nuclear energy, but their cost assumptions reveal strongly outdated numbers, as the applied nuclear energy numbers may be acceptable, but utilityscale PV is assumed to cost 230 $/MWh in 2020 and still 180 $/MWh in 2050, while the world record tenders in the Middle East and Portugal had been 13-14 $/MWh in 2020 (Bellini, 2020a(Bellini, , 2020b, that is, the cost assumptions for PV are by a factor 15 wrong, and cost only 10%-15% of the assumed nuclear energy electricity generation, which leave much room for storage and flexibility options, and still saving enormous financial resources compared to nuclear energy. Recent energy system analyses using an OSeMOSYS derivative for Australia for all energy sectors including industry found solar PV generation shares of up to 82%, based on latest PV cost insights (Aboumahboub et al, 2020).…”

“…The Southeast Asian countries the Philippines, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea are all not yet well studied, as one country study is known for the Philippines (Gulagi, Alcanzare, et al, 2021), one study for Java and Bali, a smaller island country study for Indonesia and a most recent comprehensive study for entire Indonesia (Breyer et al, 2018; Guenther et al, 2018; Gulagi, Oyewo, et al, 2021), but no study for Papua New Guinea is recorded, however, the Philippines and Indonesia are covered as well in three regional studies for Southeast Asia (Gulagi, Bogdanov, & Breyer, 2017; Gulagi, Bogdanov, Fasihi, & Breyer, 2017; Huber et al, 2015). Australia is one of the best‐researched countries for 100% RES in the world with 23 studies (Aboumahboub et al, 2020; Ali et al, 2018, 2019, 2020; Blakers et al, 2017; Elliston et al, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016; Hamilton et al, 2017; Heihsel et al, 2019; Hong et al, 2014; Howard et al, 2018; Keck et al, 2019; Kharel & Shabani, 2018; Laslett et al, 2017; Lenzen et al, 2016; Li et al, 2020; Lu et al, 2017; Riesz & Elliston, 2016; Trainer, 2012, 2017; Turner et al, 2013), while New Zealand is covered by two articles (Mason et al, 2010, 2013), and two regional articles cover both countries (Gulagi, Bogdanov, & Breyer, 2017; Gulagi, Bogdanov, Fasihi, & Breyer, 2017). Thus, clear research gaps exist for the Caribbean island countries, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.…”

Analysing the Impact of Human Capital on Renewable Energy Penetration: A Bibliometric Reviews

“…Renewable energy penetration entails the high usage of renewable energy, contributing to energy security. Aboumahboub et al [25] viewed energy penetration as the optimisation of renewable energy, increasing the usage of renewable sources across different geographical locations. Alam et al [26] viewed the penetration of renewable energy as the optimum utilisation of renewable energy, confirming with Ref.…”

“…Moreover, most research focuses on the mathematical model of optimisation of renewable energy. Aboumahboub et al [25] and Mitchell et al [27] also utilised simulation techniques and linear optimisation modeling to achieve optimisation of renewable energy sources. However, to the best of the researchers' knowledge, there is no research on the optimisation and penetration of renewable energy and human capital development in Nigeria using Bibliometric analysis together with qualitative research methodology.…”

Evaluation on the Cost of Energy Transition: A Case Study of Fujian, China

“…Gils et al (2017) found that the expansion of wind and solar power was more cost-efficient than the construction of additional hydroelectric plants by employing REMix energy system model. Aboumahboub et al (2020) thought a diverse renewable energy supply through cost-optimal combination of solar PV and wind and benefiting from spatial smoothing effects of a powerful transmission grid leads to a lower storage demand than in a solar-dominated supply with low inter-regional connectivity. Wang and Zhang (2018) proposed that sufficient regulatory resources were needed to respond the load fluctuations to ensure a real-time balance of the power system.…”