Cybernetic Approach to Problem of Interaction Between Nature and Human Sosiety in Context of Unprecedented Climate Change

Abstract

In this paper, from a cybernetic perspective, the human-nature interactions are considered in the context of modern climate change, unprecedented in its scale and rate caused by anthropogenic activity. The developed structure of the “climate-economy” cybernetic system is presented, the weaknesses of the global governance bodies are analysed, and the main causes of the uncertainties in assessing climate change and the economic damage caused by this change are discussed. It is noted that adaptation measures and strategies developed and implemented by governments of different countries and intergovernmental organizations do not eliminate the causes of global warming and, therefore, have limited capacities, since humans and nature can exist only under specified environmental conditions. Going beyond these conditions, due to climate change, can lead to a global biological catastrophe. Climate policy decisions are made under uncertainty due to the ambiguity of estimates of the future climate, which, in turn, is the result of an insufficiently adequate description of feedbacks in the climate system models. Using low-parametric models of the Earth's climate system, the influence of system’s feedbacks on tangible inter-model differences of climate change estimates obtained using modern climate models of a high degree of complexity is illustrated. Since the climate change adaptation measures proposed by experts are not the struggle with causes, but the fight with consequences, we see geoengineering as a radical adaptation strategy. In contrast to previous studies, we consider the problem of purposefully modifying climatic conditions, implemented by geoengineering methods, within the framework of optimal control theory with mathematical formalization of geoengineering objectives and methods for achieving them. In this paper, an example of the formulation and solution of the optimization problem for stabilizing the Earth’s climate through the injection of finely dispersed sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere is presented.

A Computational Approach to a Mathematical Model of Climate Change Using Heat Sources and Diffusion

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On Theoretical Foundations of Aerolimnology: Study of Fresh Water Bodies and Coastal Territories Using Air Robot Equipment

“…Междисциплинарные исследования характеризуются эмерджентным использованием подходов и средств одновременно нескольких наук с целью повышения качества измерительных, аналитических этапов изучения и разработки новых оригинальных методов и моделей [1,2]. Развиваемые теоретические основы аэролимнологии формируются как минимум на трех ключевых науках: лимнологии, информатике и робототехнике.…”

Mathematical Modelling of Climate Change and Variability in the Context of Outdoor Ergonomics

“…Global warming has already affected climatic conditions in almost all regions of Earth [7,8], but this effect varies significantly from region to region. Obviously, global and regional climate changes have some impact on people and their activities [10,11]. Assessing the impact of changing climatic conditions on humans involves assessing climate risks [12].…”