Crystal balls and calendars: A structural analysis of projected futures

Abstract

This study examines the temporal structure of projected futures. The sociology of time is an established line of inquiry, but the existing literature lacks empirically grounded description of the cultural and cognitive dimensions of projected futures. When individuals imagine their futures, what is the qualitative nature and temporal structure of their projected futures? In order to address these questions, we used a mixed-methods strategy of interviews and surveys with 126 persons from a small college in North Carolina. We asked the participants to tell us about their futures. The resulting descriptions form a strongly chronological pattern. When asked about the immediate future (i.e., tomorrow or next week), they tersely describe the tasks that must be completed. In their descriptions of the near future (i.e., next month or next year), they begin to anticipate enjoyable experiences. When they describe the intermediate future (i.e., five to ten years from now), their responses are characterized by detailed and optimistic enthusiasm for the possibilities they envision. They pay little or no attention to the distant future.

A Year Then Forever: Personal Resolution Making and the Temporal Bridge of the Near Future

“…Others view resolutions as more permanent. Jude believes that a resolution has “the quality of no turning back” and Pamela described it as “a definite for the rest of life.” Still, thinking of resolutions in terms of the near future (the next months and year) and what Jones, Flaherty, and Rubin () call the intermediate and distant futures need not be mutually exclusive. When discussing how long a resolution lasts, Cindy told me,

I think [it will be] permanent.

…”

“…And I never—rarely—get ten hours a week.Using smaller measurements of time such as days and weeks does more than break down a potentially long resolution into observable and measurable phases and serve as frequent reminders; using time in this way also transforms the immediate future. Jones et al (:168–9) argue that people feel constrained by the immediate future (tomorrow, next week) as they view it as predictable and much like today. As a result, they frame it as emotionally neutral and not “better.” According to the authors, people imagine the intermediate future (five to ten years out) as the “dreamscape of possibilities,” the point where things will be different.…”

“…Resolutions occur at identity‐sensitive times when individuals initiate identity work that they believe will propel them along a path of improvement. Second, and related, resolutions contribute to developing a “sociomental topography” of the future (Zerubavel ) by offering key insights into “how people imagine the temporal structure of their future” (Jones, Flaherty, and Rubin :156). Finally, although resolutions need not occur in the framework of a year, given their cultural association with the time frame of the year, resolutions serve as excellent windows into what Jones, Flaherty, and Rubin () call the “near future,” or the months and year that lie ahead.…”

“…This final point is not insignificant. In their work on how people imagine the temporal structures of their future, Jones et al (:164) find that individuals hold a preference for the intermediate future (five to ten years out) even though it is an unsettled, unknown “crystal ball” time over the immediate future (tomorrow or next week), which they believe to be boring, settled, routine calendar time. This finding makes sense since many studies document the optimism associated with the intermediate future.…”

“…While the informants in their study give less cognitive attention to the near future (the upcoming months and year), it remains a fascinating site, serving as a liminal, transitional space between the immediate, mundane future and the intermediate, more exciting and hopeful one. Jones et al (:168) illustrate the transitional nature of the near future as they find that informants see the year as the being point of novel experiences. The near future is where people start to look forward to things.…”