Could rainfall have swung the result of the Brexit referendum?

Leslie, Patrick; Arı, Barış

doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.05.009

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…It is therefore possible that a direct effect is at work as well. Leslie and Arı (2018) provide explicit evidence in this regard. Note however that both Leslie and Arı (2018) and Horiuchi and Kang (2018) find that the main effect of rainfall still works through turnout.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…the high/low education divide, see )) these researchers come to differing conclusions. Note that independent of us and drawing on the same case with a different identification strategy, Leslie and Arı (2018) show that rainfall was negatively related to turnout levels and predominantly induced Leave voters to stay home. Hence, they show as well that the rainfall-induced turnout decline was inconsequential for the overall Leave decision.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…This hints to the possibility of spill-over effects and/or direct effects of rainfall on Leave support (comp. Leslie and Arı (2018), who find evidence for such direct effects). Note that the size of the point estimates has to be interpreted cautiously, though, due to the wide confidence interval and strong assumptions; nonetheless, results give numeric support that preferences on EU membership differed strongly between occasional voters that participated in the referendum and regular voters.…”

Section: The Role Of Participation For the Referendum Outcomementioning

confidence: 95%

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Turning out to turn down the EU: the mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit

Rudolph

2020

Journal of European Public Policy

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Large amounts of occasional voters participated in the Brexit referendum. How did this increase in turnout affect the outcome of the referendum? To thoroughly explore this question we exploit exogenous variation in voting costs on the local level. Large amounts of rainfall on election day made voting slightly more inconvenient in some areas of the UK. Using this rainfall in an instrumental variable approach, we can assess the voting behaviour of citizens whose benefits of voting just surpass costs under normal circumstances. We show that these voters predominantly supported Leave. Hence, the increase in turnout led to higher Leave support. Subsequently, we explore the likely reason for this observation with survey data. We find evidence that occasional voters were not more likely to support Leave in general, but that the mobilisation of Leaveleaning vs. Remain-leaning occasional voters was lopsided: Leave-leaning occasional voters were more likely to turn out. In a broader picture, our research highlights that the issue-specific mobilisation of low-propensity voters is important for explaining electoral outcomes. This is particularly so in referendums with weak partisan preferences, and where singular issues dominate voter decision making.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: The Role Of Participation For the Referendum Outcomementioning

confidence: 95%

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Turning out to turn down the EU: the mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit

Rudolph

2020

Journal of European Public Policy

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“…Research on weather and elections has largely focused on the impact of ‘normal’ climatic variations such as rain, which has been found to exert transient effects on mood that have political consequences (e.g. Artés, 2014; Gomez et al., 2007; Horiuchi & Kang, 2018; Leslie & Arş, 2018). The effect of flooding can be expected to be of a different order, however, as it disrupts social and economic life in the areas affected far more profoundly than is the case with a passing rainstorm.…”

Section: Theoretical Perspectives On Flooding and Electoral Supportmentioning

confidence: 99%

The electoral benefits of environmental position‐taking: Floods and electoral outcomes in England 2010–2019

Birch

2022

European J Political Res

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The global increase in extreme weather events in recent years has spurred political scientists to examine the potential political effects of such phenomena. This paper explores effect of flooding on electoral outcomes and offers evidence that the impact of adverse events varies with changes in political context. Using a difference-indifferences identification strategy to analyse three consecutive general elections in the United Kingdom (2015, 2017 and 2019), the paper finds variability in partisan electoral benefit from one election to the next that calls into question the blind retrospection and rally-round-the-leader explanations which are often advanced to account for electoral reactions to natural disasters. Instead, changing party positions on environmental issues appear to account more convincingly for shifts in electoral support in response to flooding. This suggests that parties can derive benefit from, or be punished for, the positions they take on environmental issues when extreme weather events affect citizens.

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The impact of voter turnout on referendum outcomes: evidence from Ireland

2023

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We estimate the causal effect of voter turnout on referendum outcomes in Ireland using a newly created dataset that links 25 years of constituency-level referendum results to a variety of demographic and economic characteristics, as well as daily rainfall amounts. Our instrumental variables methodology uses rainfall as an instrument for voter turnout to overcome issues of endogeneity. By exploiting Ireland’s extensive experience with referendums, we are the first to explore the heterogeneous effects of turnout by referendum type (social issues versus regime-related issues). We find that a one-percentage-point increase in turnout is associated with a 1.6-percentage-point increase in support for progressively liberal social policies, which include issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion. For regime-related issues, such as EU economic treaties, we find no statistically significant effect of voter turnout on referendum outcomes. Our finding that turnout benefits socially progressive policies is consistent with a related strand of literature for general elections that indicates higher turnout benefits left-wing political parties.

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Could rainfall have swung the result of the Brexit referendum?

Cited by 9 publications

References 34 publications

Turning out to turn down the EU: the mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit

Turning out to turn down the EU: the mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit

The electoral benefits of environmental position‐taking: Floods and electoral outcomes in England 2010–2019

The impact of voter turnout on referendum outcomes: evidence from Ireland

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