Coronavirus Outbreak and the Mathematical Growth Map of COVID-19

Kamrujjaman, Md.; Mahmud, Shahriar; Islam, Md. Shafiqul

doi:10.9734/arrb/2020/v35i130182

Cited by 30 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In the literature, various types of mathematical models are developed to prevent or cure diseases. In the case of Mathematical models for infectious diseases, the classical SIS, SIR, and SEIR models are examples of mathematical models for the determination of critical conditions of disease development asymptotically in any population [8,9,10,11]. Since there is no proper medication or vaccine for the disease COVID-19, prevention is the only and main methodology for getting protected from COVID-19.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection

Mahmud

Kamrujjaman

Jubyrea

et al. 2020

JALSI

Self Cite

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Background: The world is now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole planet is in an vulnerable state, resulting to increase the mortality rate and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic. Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strictapplication of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome. Results: In Spain, quarantine was effected on March 14, 2020. Spain experienced an increase in reported cases for 13 days of quarantine enforcement and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decrease with small fluctuation. Government ensured the social isolation through quarantine. After imposition of a quarantine on March 9, 2020 in Italy, within 13 days of lock-down, the maximum number of infection started to decrease. Similar results observed in France. Higher social consciousness would decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system which yields to reduce the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.

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Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection

Mahmud

Kamrujjaman

Jubyrea

et al. 2020

JALSI

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In case of infectious disease modelling, the classical SIS, SIR, and SEIR etc. models allow the determination of critical condition of disease development asymptotically in the population [8,9,10,11]. Since there is no proper medication or vaccine for disease COVID-19, prevention is only and main methodology to protect it, we propose the following ODE model based on quarantine and social consciousness:…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modelling of Social Consciousness to Control the Outbreak of COVID-19

Mahmud¹,

Kamrujjaman²,

Jubyrea³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The world, now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole universe is in an vulnerable state, loosing a great loss of lives and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic. Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, GDP per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strict application of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome. Results: Higher social consciousness will decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, lower the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.

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“…The virus was named SARS-CoV-2 by WHO [2]. Since then, 209 countries and territories have reported to have coronavirus patients [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Lockdown and Isolation to Suppress the COVID-19 in Bangladesh: An Epidemic Compartments Model

Islam¹,

Ira²,

Kabir³

et al. 2020

JAMC

Self Cite

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In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 analytical epidemic framework that combines with isolation and lockdown effect by incorporating five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. The extensive numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensures the social and economic stability.

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Coronavirus Outbreak and the Mathematical Growth Map of COVID-19

Cited by 30 publications

References 3 publications

Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection

Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection

Mathematical Modelling of Social Consciousness to Control the Outbreak of COVID-19

Effect of Lockdown and Isolation to Suppress the COVID-19 in Bangladesh: An Epidemic Compartments Model

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