Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection

Mahmud, Shahriar; Kamrujjaman, Md.; Jubyrea, J.; Islam, Md Shahidul; Islam, Md. Shafiqul

doi:10.9734/jalsi/2020/v23i330150

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…At this stage, it is highly recommended to study the pandemic situation for humankind’s survival. Numerous mathematical modeling schemes illustrate this pandemic scenario [ 50 , 51 , 52 ]. However, we still think that the SEIR model may portray this scenario more fairly because of a highly contagious presence latent period of this disease cycle.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

Kamrujjaman

Mahmud

Ahmed

et al. 2021

Biology

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Background: Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, and social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 obligation among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak’s pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. Methodology and Findings: To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All of the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government’s database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and the good-fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be reasonable control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number (R0) has been estimated to be 0.7563. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government and other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. However, detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

Kamrujjaman

Mahmud

Ahmed

et al. 2021

Biology

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“…A SVEIJR model with 6 compartments consisting of susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), exposed (E), infected (I), isolated or quarantined (J) and recovered (R) population have been discussed in [8]. Also, the multiple compartments and social consciousness models with quarantined population has been analyzed in [9,18] to prevent and control the epidemic.…”

Section: Mathematical Model and Formulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Lockdown and Isolation to Suppress the COVID-19 in Bangladesh: An Epidemic Compartments Model

Islam¹,

Ira²,

Kabir³

et al. 2020

JAMC

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In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 analytical epidemic framework that combines with isolation and lockdown effect by incorporating five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. The extensive numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensures the social and economic stability.

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“…A study on social distancing policies driven by public awareness and voluntary actions were found to have strongest causal impact on reducing social interactions which resulted in the decline of the rate of infection by 37% after fifteen days [10]. Mahmud et al [11] considered their model on social dynamics that excludes government roles in control. The number of tests per population size is very important for allowing authorities to isolate and treat the infected individual avoiding further spread.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

4P Model for Dynamic Prediction of the Covid-19: A Statistical and Machine Learning Approach

Hasan

Ahmmed

Chowdhury

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Introduction: Around the world, scientists are racing hard to understand how Covid-19 epidemic is spreading and growing, thus trying to find ways to prevent it before medications come to pass. Many different models have been proposed so far correlating different factors. Some of them are too localized to indicate a general trend of the pandemic while some others have established transient correlations only.Methods: Hence, in this study, a 4P model has been proposed based on four probabilities (4P) which has been found to be true for all affected countries taking Bangladesh as a case. Efficiency scores have been estimated from survey analysis not only for governing authorities on managing the situation (P(G)) but also for the compliance of the citizens ((P(P)). Since the immune responses of all the people are not uniform to a specific pathogen, the probability of a person getting infected ((P(I)) after being exposed has also been estimated. And the vital one is the probability of Test Positivity ((P(T)) which is a strong indicator of how effectively the infected people are diagnosed and isolated from the rest of the group that affects the rate of growth.Results and Conclusion: All the four parameters have been fitted in a non-linear exponential model that partly updates itself periodically with everyday facts. Along with the model, all the four probabilistic parameters are engaged to train a recurrent neural network using Long-Short Term Memory neural network and the followed trial confirmed a ruling functionality of the 4Ps.

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Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection

Cited by 19 publications

References 4 publications

SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

Effect of Lockdown and Isolation to Suppress the COVID-19 in Bangladesh: An Epidemic Compartments Model

4P Model for Dynamic Prediction of the Covid-19: A Statistical and Machine Learning Approach

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