In the last two decades the world had faced three respiratory syndrome outbreaks incurred by Coronavirus. Though the wild animals are the primary carriers of the virus, the human population managed to survive sacrificing more than 1,600 lives from 2002 to 2012. But the current virus outbreak has already taken more than 2,462 lives since 22 February 2020. In the first few days, when the cases were being introduced under light, there were no treatment for the infection and the unleashed spread demands to be analyzed to see the pattern of the outbreak. This manuscript aims to look into the growth map of the COVID-19 outbreak under mathematical growth functions and tries to understand which growth pattern assembles the scenario for the cases.
Background: The world is now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole planet is in an vulnerable state, resulting to increase the mortality rate and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic.
Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strictapplication of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome.
Results: In Spain, quarantine was effected on March 14, 2020. Spain experienced an increase in reported cases for 13 days of quarantine enforcement and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decrease with small fluctuation. Government ensured the social isolation through quarantine. After imposition of a quarantine on March 9, 2020 in Italy, within 13 days of lock-down, the maximum number of infection started to decrease. Similar results observed in France. Higher social consciousness would decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst.
Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system which yields to reduce the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.