Comparison of trends and frequencies of drought in central North China and sub-Saharan Africa from 1901 to 2010

Ogou, Faustin Katchele; Ma, Zhuguo; Yang, Qing; Batebana, Kpaikpai

doi:10.1080/16742834.2017.1392825

Cited by 11 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(22 reference statements)

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“…Precipitation and temperature in China are highly uneven in space and time. Previous research has found that mean precipitation decreases from southeast to northwest and has varied from 15 to over 2700 mm; and the mean temperature gradually decreases from south to north and has varied from −12 to 25 • C annually during 1961-2013 [10,11]. ( Figure 1) according to the topography and climate features following the National Assessment Report of Climate Change (National Report Committee, 2011) [64].…”

Section: Climate Regions Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The historical spatiotemporal changes in wetting and drying areas over China have been investigated in previous research [7,[10][11][12][13]. Recently, a series of severe and extensive droughts in both 2006 and from 2009 to 2011 had swept across southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses and disruption of society [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Then, the future drought spatiotemporal variability is calculated based on SPEI over China and 8 climate regions under different RCP scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the 21st century. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are two radiative forcing pathways equal to 4.5 W/m −2 (equivalent to 650 ppm CO 2 concentration) and 8.5 W/m −2 (equivalent to 1370 ppm CO 2 concentration) total emissions released by 2100, respectively, and these two scenarios are widely used to analyze climate change [4,11,14,15,[24][25][26]. Finally, the frequency and duration of different drought classes as well as the potential impact on crop production are investigated and discussed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Drought Trend Analysis Based on the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index Using NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, High Spatial Resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Projections, and Assessment of Potential Impacts on China’s Crop Yield in the 21st Century

Guo

Yang

et al. 2019

Water

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Drought is among the costliest natural disasters on both ecosystems and agroeconomics in China. However, most previous studies have used coarse resolution data or simply stopped short of investigating drought projection and its impact on crop yield. Motivated by the newly released higher-resolution climate projection dataset and the crucial need to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural production, the overarching goal of this study was to systematically and comprehensively predict future droughts at unprecedented resolutions over China as a whole. rather than region-specific projections, and then to further investigate its impact on crop yield by innovatively using a soil water deficit drought index. Methodologically, the drought projections were quantified from very high resolution climate data and further predicted impacts on crop yield over China using the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a relatively high (25 km) spatial resolution from NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). The results showed that (1) overall, China is projected to experience a significant decrease in SPEI (−0.15/decade under RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5; −0.14/decade under RCP8.5). Seasonally, the decreasing rate of SPEI is projected to be largest in winter (−0.2/decade and −0.31/decade) and the least in summer (−0.08/decade and −0.10/decade) under respective RCPs. (2) Regionally, winter/spring will get drier, especially at high latitudes/altitudes (North China and Tibetan plateau), and summer/autumn will get wetter in southern China. (3) Both the frequency and duration for medium and severe drought are projected to decrease, while extreme drought, particularly in high latitudes/altitudes, is projected to increase. (4) The percentage of the potential crop production affected by drought would increase to 36% (47%) by 2100 under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Especially, the ratio impacted by extreme drought is projected to increase over time and with much worse magnitude under RCP8.5; thus, adaptive crop policies are expected to address such a risk.

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Section: Climate Regions Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Drought Trend Analysis Based on the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index Using NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, High Spatial Resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Projections, and Assessment of Potential Impacts on China’s Crop Yield in the 21st Century

Guo

Yang

et al. 2019

Water

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“…The period 1951-2010 is chosen here because Ogou et al (2017) found drought increased significantly in SSA and CNC during that period. For this period, the current study reviews the decadal precipitation anomaly, the relationship between the spatiotemporal variables of the decadal precipitation anomalies and the decadal SST modes (Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in SSA and CNC, and analyzes the abrupt change in precipitation variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of interdecadal precipitation variability over central North China and sub Saharan Africa

Ogou

Yang

Duan

et al. 2019

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

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The interdecadal variability of precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and central North China (CNC) is examined and compared in this study. Previous studies have found that the two regions have similar interdecadal dry-wet evolution in the past 100 years. The results show obvious decadal precipitation fluctuations in the two regions. In CNC, a persistent negative precipitation anomaly is detected from the early 1970s to the 2000s. In SSA, a negative precipitation anomaly is apparent since the late 1970s, while a distinct upward trend is found since the 1990s although the precipitation anomaly is still negative. Significant correlation is found between the decadal precipitation anomalies in SSA and the SST modes (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while in CNC the decadal precipitation is influenced by the NAO and PDO. The EOF results show that the total explained variance of the first four EOFs in SSA is smaller than that of CNC. The fourth and third modes in SSA are significantly associated with the AMO and PDO respectively, while the first, third, and fourth modes are significantly associated with the NAO. The first mode in CNC is significantly associated with the NAO. The first mode of the precipitation anomaly in SSA fluctuates out of phase with that in CNC, while in-phase changes are apparent among the third and the fourth modes. 摘要

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“…The sequential version of the Mann‐Kendall (SVMK) test was developed from the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test (Kendall, ; Mann, ) by Goossens and Berger (). This method has been widely used to detect the abrupt change of trend in climatic time series, including temperature (Karaca et al, ; Wang, ), precipitation (Esteban‐Parra et al, ), and the dry/wet trend (Faustin Katchele et al, ; Ma, ). Thus, the SVMK method is used to detect the abrupt change of soil moisture trend in this work.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal Change in Soil Moisture Over East Asia in Response to a Decade‐Long Warming Hiatus

et al. 2019

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East Asia has experienced long-term warming and drying in the twentieth century.However, a phenomenon known as the "warming hiatus" changed the trend of enhanced soil drying over East Asia. In contrast to the previous long-term drying in the last century, time series of soil moisture showed a shift from a downtrend to uptrend around 2005, and prominent wetting was located in the northeast (semiarid and dry subhumid regions) and southeast of China (extreme humid regions). Our results illustrated that such abrupt change in soil moisture was closely related to the change of warming during hiatus. The warming hiatus played a more important role in decadal soil wetting over these semiarid and dry subhumid regions, compared to relatively limited influence of surface atmosphere temperature over humid regions. The weakened drying during the hiatus decade suggests that the response of wetting/drying to climate in drylands is closely related to decadal surface atmosphere temperature, which will deepen our understanding of the mechanism on the role of surface atmosphere temperature in the process of wetting/drying in drylands over different time scales.

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Comparison of trends and frequencies of drought in central North China and sub-Saharan Africa from 1901 to 2010

Cited by 11 publications

References 27 publications

Comparative analysis of interdecadal precipitation variability over central North China and sub Saharan Africa

Decadal Change in Soil Moisture Over East Asia in Response to a Decade‐Long Warming Hiatus

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