Comparative evaluation of 1D and quasi-2D hydraulic models based on benchmark and real-world applications for uncertainty assessment in flood mapping

Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Tegos, Aristoteles; Oikonomou, Aineias; Pagana, Vassiliki; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Mamassis, Nikοs; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.020

Cited by 196 publications

(152 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…8). As roughness coefficients directly affect the estimation of discharge and water level, the impact of their uncertainty has been shown previously in other studies (Dimitriadis et al, 2016;Pappenberger et al, 2005b;Warmink and Booij, 2015;Wohl, 1998). Here, uncertainty is expected to be particularly large as these coefficients interacted with uncertain post-event estimated discharge and high-water marks and also because they were assumed to be spatially aggregated due to data limitations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

Fuentes-Andino

Beven

Halldin

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Postevent data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum-Cunge-Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed highwater marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events can be added into the analysis as they become available.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

Fuentes-Andino

Beven

Halldin

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…A typical approach for large scale applications that uses two-dimensional hydraulic models is the estimation of the roughness coefficient using CORINE land cover data and standard roughness coefficient tables (e.g., [30]). Therefore, in this study the average values of Manning's roughness coefficient (Table 1) have been estimated using CORINE land cover classification in combination with typical Manning's roughness coefficient tables [60].…”

Section: Hydraulic-hydrodynamic Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In such cases, the use of a 2D-modelling approach is generally suggested due to the provision of more accurate or realistic results [10,11,[17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. These models are able to simulate floodplain inundation and river hydraulics, as demonstrated in many studies (e.g., [9,15,[27][28][29][30]). However, most of them have been carried out at gauged watersheds, taking advantage of hydrometric information, i.e., discharge data and stage/discharge relationships, which ensures accurate estimation of flood spatial extent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Operational Method for Flood Directive Implementation in Ungauged Urban Areas

et al. 2018

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An operational framework for flood risk assessment in ungauged urban areas is developed within the implementation of the EU Floods Directive in Greece, and demonstrated for Volos metropolitan area, central Greece, which is frequently affected by intense storms causing fluvial flash floods. A scenario-based approach is applied, accounting for uncertainties of key modeling aspects. This comprises extreme rainfall analysis, resulting in spatially-distributed Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationships and their confidence intervals, and flood simulations, through the SCS-CN method and the unit hydrograph theory, producing design hydrographs at the sub-watershed scale, for several soil moisture conditions. The propagation of flood hydrographs and the mapping of inundated areas are employed by the HEC-RAS 2D model, with flexible mesh size, by representing the resistance caused by buildings through the local elevation rise method. For all hydrographs, upper and lower estimates on water depths, flow velocities and inundation areas are estimated, for varying roughness coefficient values. The methodology is validated against the flood event of the 9th October 2006, using observed flood inundation data. Our analyses indicate that although typical engineering practices for ungauged basins are subject to major uncertainties, the hydrological experience may counterbalance the missing information, thus ensuring quite realistic outcomes.

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“…Black lines refer to the comparison between Current and Infrastructures and Past and Infrastructures terrain configurations, which differ by means of anthropogenic ground lowering only, while blue and red lines (Current and Infrastructures vs Current and Current and Infrastructures vs Past, respectively) highlight the influence of major linear infrastructures by comparing two terrain configurations that differ at least in terms of representation of main linear infrastructures. Grey areas in all panels highlight significant values of |Δh| and |Δv|; that is, differences within grey areas are higher than the typical uncertainty in variables modelled by TELEMAC-2D: |Δh| = 0.2 m and |Δv| = 0.2 m s −1 (see Lim 2011, Néelz and Pender 2013, Dimitriadis et al 2016. We calculated the uncertainty associated with simulated i (i.e.…”

Section: Are the Effects Of Anthropogenic Land Subsidence More Intensmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is anthropogenic land subsidence a possible driver of riverine flood-hazard dynamics? A case study in Ravenna, Italy

Carisi

Domeneghetti

Gaeta

et al. 2017

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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We investigate possible changes in flood hazard over a 77-km 2 area around the city of Ravenna. The subsidence rate in the area, naturally a few mm year −1 , increased dramatically after World War II because of groundwater and natural gas extraction, exceeding 110 mm year −1 and resulting in cumulative drops larger than 1.5 m. The Montone-Ronco river system flows in the southern portion of the area, which is protected against frequent flooding by levees. We performed twodimensional simulations of inundation events associated with levee breaching by considering four different terrain configurations: current topography and a reconstruction of ground elevations before anthropogenic land subsidence, both neglecting and representing the main linear infrastructures (e.g. roads, artificial channels). Results show that flood-hazard changes due to anthropogenic land subsidence (e.g. significant changes in computed water depth and velocity) are observed over less than 10% of the study area and are definitely less important than those resulting from construction of the linear infrastructures.ARTICLE HISTORY

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Comparative evaluation of 1D and quasi-2D hydraulic models based on benchmark and real-world applications for uncertainty assessment in flood mapping

Cited by 196 publications

References 27 publications

Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

An Operational Method for Flood Directive Implementation in Ungauged Urban Areas

Is anthropogenic land subsidence a possible driver of riverine flood-hazard dynamics? A case study in Ravenna, Italy

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