Is anthropogenic land subsidence a possible driver of riverine flood-hazard dynamics? A case study in Ravenna, Italy

Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Gaeta, Maria Gabriella; Castellarin, Attilio

doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1390315

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Moreover, floodplains can be affected by land subsidence due to drainage or groundwater extraction. This results in increasing flood hazards and consequently, increasing flood risk [77].…”

Section: Changes In Flood Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Zischg

2018

Systems

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Floodplains, as seen from the flood risk management perspective, are composed of co-evolving natural and human systems. Both flood processes (that is, the hazard) and the values at risk (that is, settlements and infrastructure built in hazardous areas) are dynamically changing over time and influence each other. These changes influence future risk pathways. The co-evolution of all of these drivers for changes in flood risk could lead to emergent behavior. Hence, complexity theory and systems science can provide a sound theoretical framework for flood risk management in the 21st century. This review aims at providing an entry point for modelers in flood risk research to consider floodplains as complex adaptive systems. For the systems science community, the actual problems and approaches in the flood risk research community are summarized. Finally, an outlook is given on potential future coupled component modeling approaches that aims at bringing together both disciplines.

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“…Moreover, floodplains can be affected by land subsidence due to drainage or groundwater extraction. This results in increasing flood hazards and consequently, increasing flood risk [77].…”

Section: Changes In Flood Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Zischg

2018

Systems

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“…1 is the right levee of the Secchia River, while the eastern boundary consists of the left levee of the Panaro River, which also flows towards the northeast, almost parallel to the Secchia River. Roads, embankments and drainage channels which form the southern and northern boundaries are an important control for flooding dynamics (Carisi et al, 2017) and, in the northern part, they prevented urban areas from being flooded.…”

Section: Study Area and Inundation Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review reply: Anonymous Referee #1

Carisi¹

2018

Preprint

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Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km 2 in northern Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with further information compiled by us, including economic building values, maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni-and multivariable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However, multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available.

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“…The development of efficient tools to accurately represent nearshore wave and current-induced dynamics is essential for today's operational and forecasting applications in coastal zones [3,4]. High-resolution wave and hydrodynamics modeling offer an extensive range of capabilities to support The modeled site includes, from North to South, the coastal area between the south-side of Porto Garibaldi and the Reno River mouth (Figure 1), and comprises the mouth of Logonovo channel (zone a) at Lido degli Estensi, where sediments transported northwards from the Reno outflow are intercepted by the jetty of Porto Garibaldi, the touristic shoreline of Lido di Spina (zone b), and the old outlet plain of Gobbino channel (zone c) with low-lying plains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under Climate Change Scenarios

Gaeta

Bonaldo

Samaras

et al. 2018

Water

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This work presents the results of the numerical study implemented for the natural area of Lido di Spina, a touristic site along the Italian coast of the North Adriatic Sea, close to the mouth of River Reno. High-resolution simulations of nearshore dynamics are carried out under climate change conditions estimated for the site. The adopted modeling chain is based on the implementation of multiple-nested, open-source numerical models. More specifically, the coupled wave-2D hydrodynamics runs, using the open-source TELEMAC suite, are forced at the offshore boundary by waves resulting from the wave model (SWAN) simulations for the Adriatic Sea, and sea levels computed following a joint probability analysis approach. The system simulates present-day scenarios, as well as conditions reflecting the high IPCC greenhouse concentration trajectory named RCP8.5 under predicted climate changes. Selection of sea storms directed from SE (Sirocco events) and E-NE (Bora events) is performed together with Gumbel analysis, in order to define ordinary and extreme sea conditions. The numerical results are here presented in terms of local parameters such as wave breaking position, alongshore currents intensity and direction and flooded area, aiming to provide insights on how climate changes may impact hydrodynamics at a site scale. Although the wave energy intensity predicted for Sirocco events is expected to increase only slightly, modifications of the wave dynamics, current patterns, and inland flooding induced by climate changes are expected to be significant for extreme conditions, especially during Sirocco winds, with an increase in the maximum alongshore currents and in the inundated area compared to past conditions. coastal planning and decision assessment, accounting for typical features at a coastal engineering scale, such as nonlinear processes of wave propagation and interactions between offshore and coastal structures and the inclusion of inshore boundary conditions, such as river run-off.In recent years, research efforts have focused on the development of methodological frameworks based on advanced numerical modeling [5,6], which can be used to study the effects of future climate change scenarios affecting both the intensity and frequency of storm-surge events, wave climate, currents, sea-level rise, and riverine sediment discharge. Since the above-mentioned phenomena may increase the flood risk for coastal areas, the understanding of their dynamics at coastal scale becomes essential for the design of climate-change resilience protection and, in general, spatial planning activities.Thus, the development of multipurpose measures mitigating erosion and inundation and increasing coastal defense efficiency requires a challenging prediction of sea forcings variation induced by the estimated effects of climate change.Recently, regional future scenarios accounting for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea-level projections at 2100 characterized by Representative Concentration Pathways equal to +8.5 W/m 2 (here...

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Is anthropogenic land subsidence a possible driver of riverine flood-hazard dynamics? A case study in Ravenna, Italy

Cited by 21 publications

References 43 publications

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Review reply: Anonymous Referee #1

Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under Climate Change Scenarios

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