Come hell or high water: An investigation of the effects of a natural disaster on a local election

Bodet, Marc André; Thomas, Melanee; Tessier, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2016.06.003

Cited by 45 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This finding is very similar to those in a study by Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier (2016) of voting behaviour after a flood in the Canadian city of Calgary in June 2013. In this case, the authors contrasted the 15 flooded subdivisions with the 127 subdivisions that were not flooded and discovered a substantial and significant vote gap of six percentage points between the two.…”

Section: Disasters and Votingsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Some studies do not address this heterogeneity when comparing the voting gap between affected and unaffected areas (Achen and Bartels, 2004; Cole, Healy, and Werker, 2012). Others apply statistical tools to alleviate the bias caused by this heterogeneity (Velez and Martin, 2013; Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier, 2016). Concretely, Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier (2016) highlight that socio‐political conditions in flooded regions as compared to non‐flooded regions of Calgary were not equivalent.…”

Section: Main Methodological Differences and Caveatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Achen and Bartels (2004) Arceneaux and Stein (2006) Cole, Healy, and Werker (2012) Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier (2016) Heersink, Peterson, and Jenkins (2017)…”

Section: Disasters and Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Empirical evidence supports both positions. Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier (2016, p. 86) summarise the existing literature by claiming that it suggests that incumbent governments are penalised by voters for natural hazards beyond their control. Eriksson (2016, p. 130), on the contrary, claims that the accumulated evidence of retrospective voting is good news that points to retrospection as an accountability mechanism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses

Rubin

2019

Disasters

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Natural hazards not only have socioeconomic ramifications, they also have political repercussions. This paper takes stock of the fast‐growing area of research linking disasters triggered by natural hazards to voting behaviour. It is based on the central tenet of voter retrospection: voters place emphasis on past events when making their selection. The study uncovers a great disparity in analysis of electoral outcomes in the wake of disasters, part of which can be explained by the different methodological choices of authors. However, the unpredictability of voting behaviour in the aftermath of disasters also points to the relevance of introducing an intermediate variable when elucidating voter movements. This variable should capture the prevailing political discourses that surround disasters, as these are likely to shape the dynamics of voter retrospection. The paper demonstrates the analytical relevance of such political discourses by contrasting political dynamics in Denmark and Sweden following the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004.

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Section: Disasters and Votingsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Main Methodological Differences and Caveatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Achen and Bartels (2004) Arceneaux and Stein (2006) Cole, Healy, and Werker (2012) Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier (2016) Heersink, Peterson, and Jenkins (2017)…”

Section: Disasters and Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses

Rubin

2019

Disasters

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“…Second, regarding the specific focus on mayor's roles only Clark and Mondello () put this issue in the centre of their investigation. Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier () mentioned the position of mayors, but they primarily screened how the occurrence of flooding influenced local election results in Calgary, Canada. Further, local authority roles in FRM were investigated by McRobert () in Scotland, by Pottier, Penning‐Rowsell, Tunstall, and Hubert () in France and by Næss et al () in Norway.…”

Section: Reflection Of the Local Authority Roles In Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Mayors and “their” land: Revealing approaches to flood risk management in small municipalities

Slavíková

Raška

Kopáček

2018

J Flood Risk Management

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The multilevel adaptive governance of flood risk reduction has been emphasised in the last decades and supported by the requirements of European Flood Directive (EC, 2007), while assigning an increasingly important role to municipalities. By contrast, only fragmented efforts have addressed the personal (expert knowledge), financial, and institutional limits of municipalities to achieve the flood risk management (FRM) goals. Starting with thorough literature review, we emphasise the key gaps in current understanding of municipal FRM and note that scarce attention has been paid to small‐sized municipalities (both in area and population). Next, we present an empirical case study based on semi‐structured interviews with 17 mayors of small municipalities in a flood‐prone area of northern Czechia. The aggregation of the mayors' opinions about flood threat and current and planned FRM measures as well as the perceived barriers in their implementation enabled the classification of different FRM strategies at a municipal level (herein referred to as “self‐confidence,” “fatalism,” and “active scepticism”). These strategies are then discussed in terms of the mayors' leadership styles and the significant consequences on the effectiveness and efficiency of FRM at a municipal level.

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Government Accountability and Natural Disasters: The Impact of Natural Hazard Events on Political Trust and Satisfaction With Governments in Europe

Albrecht¹

2017

Risk Hazard & Crisis Pub Pol

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Do natural disasters generally affect individuals' political trust and satisfaction with the government? To answer this question, 10 cases of minor and major disasters in Europe are examined using a quasi-experimental quantitative design that is based on ordinary least squares regression models. The results indicate that alterations in satisfaction with the government are possible, but only occur in very specific instances, and that effects are small. Changes in political trust are even more unlikely. While it was expected that disasters and their management have at least some effect on how individuals perceive their government's performance because they hold incumbents accountable for their actions, generally speaking this effect hardly occurs in relation to natural disasters. Political attitudes among individuals appear largely unaffected and cases of disasters when incumbents benefit from or are blamed for the perceived management of disasters appear to be uncommon.KEY WORDS: political trust, satisfaction with the government, accountability 政府问责和自然灾害:自然灾害事件对欧洲政府政治信任和满意度的影响自然灾害总体上会影响个人对政府的政治信任和满意度吗？为回答这一问题, 本文检验了欧洲地区共10个大型和小型灾害案例, 检验方法运用了基于普通最小二乘回归模型(ordinary least squares regression models)的"准实验定量研究设计"(quasi-experimental quantitative design)。结果显示, 个人对政府满意度的变化仅在非常特定的条件下才有可能发生, 且变化产生的效果很小。政治信任发生变化的机率则更小。尽管人们预期灾害和灾害管理最少也会对个人如何感知政府表现产生影响(因为民众能让政府在职者对其行为进行问责), 然而总体而言, 这种预期的效果几乎不会发生。个人的政治态度在很大程度上都不受影响, 并且通常也不会发生在职者因民众对其灾害管理的感知而受到奖励或批评的情况。关键词: 政府信任, 政府满意度, 问责 La rendici on de cuentas por parte del gobierno y los desastres naturales: El impacto de los eventos de peligros naturales en la confianza política y la satisfacci on con los gobiernos en Europa ¿Afectan los desastres naturales generalmente la confianza política de los individuos y la satisfacci on con el gobierno? Para responder esta pregunta, diez casos de desastres menores y mayores en Europa se examinaron usando un diseño casi experimental que se basa en modelos ordinarios de regresi on del mínimo cuadr atico parcial. Los resultados indican que las alteraciones en satisfacci on con el gobierno son posibles, pero que solo ocurren en instancias muy específicas y los efectos son menores. Los cambios en confianza política son a un menos probables. Mientras que se esperaba que los desastres y su gesti on tuvieran por lo menos el mismo efecto en c omo los individuos perciben el desempeño de sus gobiernos porque hacen que los políticos rindan cuentas de sus acciones; generalmente hablando, este efecto ocurre rara vez en relaci on con los desastres naturales. Las actitudes políticas en los individuos parecen no ser afectadas en general y los casos de desastres cuando los políticos obtienen beneficios o se les culpa por su gesti on percibida de los desastres parecen no ser comunes.PALABRAS CLAVES: confianza política, satisfacci on con el gobierno, rendici on de cuentas

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Come hell or high water: An investigation of the effects of a natural disaster on a local election

Cited by 45 publications

References 22 publications

The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses

The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses

Mayors and “their” land: Revealing approaches to flood risk management in small municipalities

Government Accountability and Natural Disasters: The Impact of Natural Hazard Events on Political Trust and Satisfaction With Governments in Europe

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