The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses

Abstract

Natural hazards not only have socioeconomic ramifications, they also have political repercussions. This paper takes stock of the fast‐growing area of research linking disasters triggered by natural hazards to voting behaviour. It is based on the central tenet of voter retrospection: voters place emphasis on past events when making their selection. The study uncovers a great disparity in analysis of electoral outcomes in the wake of disasters, part of which can be explained by the different methodological choices of authors. However, the unpredictability of voting behaviour in the aftermath of disasters also points to the relevance of introducing an intermediate variable when elucidating voter movements. This variable should capture the prevailing political discourses that surround disasters, as these are likely to shape the dynamics of voter retrospection. The paper demonstrates the analytical relevance of such political discourses by contrasting political dynamics in Denmark and Sweden following the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004.

Private Support for Public Disaster Aid

“…The first approach, underlying most research on this topic in political science, takes an ex post perspective in which the degree of public support is measured by the impact on the electoral success of an incumbent government's implementation of government aid to an affected region suffering significant and well-publicized losses in the aftermath of a major disaster. That government disaster aid exerts a positive influence on the aggregate opinion and subsequent voting by a national electorate for that government in a subsequent election has been documented for the U.S. and other countries by Healy and Malhotra (2009), Manacorda et al (2009), Cole et al (2012), Fuchs and Rodriguez-Chamussy (2014), Rubin (2020) and others. However, using voter data disaggregated by region, Chen (2013) and Chen and Healy (2014) find that this support is sensitive to public perceptions of the timeliness of aid and the efficiency of its distribution.…”

Challenges Associated with Creeping Disasters in Disaster Risk Science and Practice: Considering Disaster Onset Dynamics

“…Researchers observe no unambiguous link between disaster severity, either in terms of economic burden or human toll, and political attention or policy change (Birkland 1998;Healy and Malhotra 2009;DeLeo 2016;Boin et al 2017;Rubin 2018). Slowly manifesting disaster impacts are usually associated with lower political salience than impacts that are concentrated in time and space, such as the consequences of an earthquake.…”

Routledge Handbook of Autocratization in South Asia

“…Political competition, a relatively uncensored press, and committed local and international partners have mutually supported each other in advancing disaster management. While no single disaster has ever made a measurable impact on Bangladesh's elections (partly because everyday risks matter more to most than occasional hazards), political leaders nevertheless have reasons to believe that a scandalous disaster response could (Hossain, 2019a;Rubin, 2020).…”