Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socioeconomic changes. Building resilient communities is crucial to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of, and preparedness to, face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the northeastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and the results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event had occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. The outcomes of this study contribute to socio-hydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics.

This study investigates if and to what extent natural disasters affect social capital. Twelve different events in Europe are examined in a quantitative analysis, using data derived from the European Social Survey and the EM-DAT International Disaster Database. The study uses social trust as an indicator of social capital and offers evidence that a change in social trust is a possible occurrence during or after a disaster, but that it is not an inevitable consequence of it. The results reveal that social trust decreases after a disaster with a death toll of at least nine. Changes in social capital, therefore, are found to be more probable as the severity of the event increases. National, rather than regional, disasters lead more frequently to significant shifts in social trust. This evaluation of 12 separate cases pinpoints several disasters that have had an effect on social trust, but it does not identify any general patterns, underlining the significance of contextual dependency.

What implications do societies' risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, sociohydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. The results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness-raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.

Communicating during a crisis can be challenging for public agencies as their communication ecology becomes increasingly complex while the need for fast and reliable public communication remains high. Using the lens of communication ecology, this study examines the online communication of national public health agencies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, Sweden, and the United States. Based on content analysis of Twitter data ( n = 856) and agency press releases ( n = 95), this article investigates two main questions: (1) How, and to what extent, did national public health agencies coordinate their online communication with other agencies and organizations? (2) How was online communication from the agencies diversified in terms of targeting specific organizations and social groups? Our findings indicate that public health agencies relied heavily on internal scientific expertise and predominately coordinated their communication efforts with national government agencies. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that agencies in each country differed in how they diversify information; however, all agencies provided tailored information to at least some organizations and social groups. Across the three countries, information tailored for several vulnerable groups (e.g., pregnant women, people with disabilities, immigrants, and homeless populations) was largely absent, which may contribute to negative consequences for these groups.

Do natural disasters generally affect individuals' political trust and satisfaction with the government? To answer this question, 10 cases of minor and major disasters in Europe are examined using a quasi-experimental quantitative design that is based on ordinary least squares regression models. The results indicate that alterations in satisfaction with the government are possible, but only occur in very specific instances, and that effects are small. Changes in political trust are even more unlikely. While it was expected that disasters and their management have at least some effect on how individuals perceive their government's performance because they hold incumbents accountable for their actions, generally speaking this effect hardly occurs in relation to natural disasters. Political attitudes among individuals appear largely unaffected and cases of disasters when incumbents benefit from or are blamed for the perceived management of disasters appear to be uncommon.KEY WORDS: political trust, satisfaction with the government, accountability 政府问责和自然灾害:自然灾害事件对欧洲政府政治信任和满意度的影响 自然灾害总体上会影响个人对政府的政治信任和满意度吗？为回答这一问题, 本文检验了欧洲 地区共10个大型和小型灾害案例, 检验方法运用了基于普通最小二乘回归模型(ordinary least squares regression models)的"准实验定量研究设计"(quasi-experimental quantitative design)。结果显示, 个人对政府满意度的变化仅在非常特定的条件下才有可能发 生, 且变化产生的效果很小。政治信任发生变化的机率则更小。尽管人们预期灾害和灾害管理 最少也会对个人如何感知政府表现产生影响(因为民众能让政府在职者对其行为进行问责), 然 而总体而言, 这种预期的效果几乎不会发生。个人的政治态度在很大程度上都不受影响, 并且 通常也不会发生在职者因民众对其灾害管理的感知而受到奖励或批评的情况。 关键词: 政府信任, 政府满意度, 问责 La rendici on de cuentas por parte del gobierno y los desastres naturales: El impacto de los eventos de peligros naturales en la confianza política y la satisfacci on con los gobiernos en Europa ¿Afectan los desastres naturales generalmente la confianza política de los individuos y la satisfacci on con el gobierno? Para responder esta pregunta, diez casos de desastres menores y mayores en Europa se examinaron usando un diseño casi experimental que se basa en modelos ordinarios de regresi on del mínimo cuadr atico parcial. Los resultados indican que las alteraciones en satisfacci on con el gobierno son posibles, pero que solo ocurren en instancias muy específicas y los efectos son menores. Los cambios en confianza política son a un menos probables. Mientras que se esperaba que los desastres y su gesti on tuvieran por lo menos el mismo efecto en c omo los individuos perciben el desempeño de sus gobiernos porque hacen que los políticos rindan cuentas de sus acciones; generalmente hablando, este efecto ocurre rara vez en relaci on con los desastres naturales. Las actitudes políticas en los individuos parecen no ser afectadas en general y los casos de desastres cuando los políticos obtienen beneficios o se les culpa por su gesti on percibida de los desastres parecen no ser comunes.PALABRAS CLAVES: confianza política, satisfacci on con el gobierno, rendici on de cuentas

Purpose As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing countries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capture demographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis. Findings The ability of low-income households to meet their daily expenditure needs, household size, and networks with relatives and non government organizations (NGOs) were significant determinants of preparedness, recovery and adaptation to prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events. Practical implications The results imply that policymakers and practitioners have an important role vis-à-vis encouraging activities that boost the ability of households to meet their daily expenditure needs, promoting small household size and reinforcing social networks that enhance household resilience. Originality/value Even the low-income households are substantially more likely to prepare for and recover from prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events if they can meet their daily expenditure needs. This finding is noteworthy because the poorest in society are generally the most vulnerable to hazards.

<p class="Abstract"><span lang="EN-GB">What implications do societies’ risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. Results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling. </span></p>

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