Collective intelligence: a new approach to stock price forecasting

Kaplan, Craig A.

doi:10.1109/icsmc.2001.971949

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The measurement perspective is rooted on the theoretical framework of equity valuation models (Ohlson, 1995), which expressed the value of a firm as a function of book value and earnings (Blessing, 2015). However, attention has turned in recent years to valuation models that include dividend per share, net assets per share earnings yield, and others (Francis and Schipper, 1999;Blessing, 2015;Kaplan, 2001).…”

Section: Perspective Of Share Price Measurementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of audit quality on market price of firms listed on the Nigerian stock market

Ugwunta¹,

Ugwuanyi²,

Ngwa³

2018

J. Account. Taxation

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This study examines the effect of audit quality on share prices of Nigerian oil and gas firms using the regression and covariance analyses. Findings from the regression anlysis suggests that the composition of the audit committee and auditor type has significant effect on the market prices of quoted firms. There is a positive and significant relationship between audit committee composition and share prices. The covariance analysis suggests that while auditor type (BIG4/NONBIG4), auditor independence, and composition of the audit committee have a positive and significant relationship with market price of shares, tenure of external auditors has a negative relationship with the market price of shares. The implication of the findings is that audit quality will enhance reported earnings and hence the share market prices. The study recommends that firms should strive to associate with the BIG4 external auditors in Nigeria as such an association could enhance the credibility of the audit process and by extension their share prices; regulatory authorities should discourage joint audit and non-audit services to firms because it could threaten the independence of external auditors. Regulatory agencies should also present distinct statements on the tenure of the external auditors to be clearly stated in annual reports. This is because a long attachment between the external auditors and a client may threaten the independence of the external auditors.

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Section: Perspective Of Share Price Measurementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of audit quality on market price of firms listed on the Nigerian stock market

Ugwunta¹,

Ugwuanyi²,

Ngwa³

2018

J. Account. Taxation

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“…Applications 5.1 Cognition 5.1.1 Market prediction. As the internet can quickly convey a lot of information around the world, the use of collective wisdom to predict the feasibility of stock prices (Kaplan, 2001). The opinion of all investors can be weighed equally, so that the effective application of collective intelligence can be applied: the masses, including a broad spectrum of stock market expertise or many not, can be utilized to more accurately predict the behavior of modern financial markets.…”

Section: Optimizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Literature review on collective intelligence: a crowd science perspective

Chai

Liu

2018

IJCS

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Purpose-Collective intelligence has drawn many scientists' attention in many centuries. This paper shows the collective intelligence study process in a perspective of crowd science. Design/methodology/approach-After summarizing the time-order process of related researches, different points of views on collective intelligence's measurement and their modeling methods were outlined. Findings-The authors show the recent research focusing on collective intelligence optimization. The studies on application of collective intelligence and its future potential are also discussed. Originality/value-This paper will help researchers in crowd science have a better picture of this highly related frontier interdiscipline.

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“…While it seems to be a popular claim that the "wisdom of the crowds" is applied in the context of open collaboration equity predictions [28]- [30], it might be questionable that the approach of crowedsourced equity predictions is an application of the very specific phenomenon called "crowd wisdom" [31] or collective intelligence [32]. One key paper in the domain of stock-price predictions was presented by Kaplan [33]. He described the design and the first tests of a prototype system that was supposed to create stock trading recommendations based on input from a crowd.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

"Deliberated Intuition for Groups": An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting

Endreß¹,

Gear²

2018

Proceedings of the 51st Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences

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Crowd predictions in the domain of stock-price forecasting is a fascinating concept. Several specialinterest online communities were founded following this idea. However, there is a limited body of literature about the domain of stock-price predictions based on such a crowdsourced approach. This paper presents an empirical study in the form of a two-phase, sequential mixed-methods experiment. Data from purposefully designed groups, consisting of lay people and professional financial analysts, were examined to inform the understanding of the prediction process. The findings led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as 'deliberated intuition for groups'. The model of deliberated intuition for groups, which is proposed here, views prediction as a process of practice which will be different for each individual and group. The model proposes that a predictor will decide, consciously or semiconsciously , either to rely on gut-feeling or to undertake more analysis.

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Collective intelligence: a new approach to stock price forecasting

Cited by 12 publications

References 5 publications

Effect of audit quality on market price of firms listed on the Nigerian stock market

Effect of audit quality on market price of firms listed on the Nigerian stock market

Literature review on collective intelligence: a crowd science perspective

"Deliberated Intuition for Groups": An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting

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