Cold Climate Structural Fire Danger Rating System?

Abstract

Worldwide, fires kill 300,000 people every year. The fire season is usually recognized to be in the warmer periods of the year. Recent research has, however, demonstrated that the colder season also has major challenges regarding severe fires, especially in inhabited (heated) wood-based structures in cold-climate areas. Knowledge about the effect of dry cellulose-based materials on fire development, indoor and outdoor, is a motivation for monitoring possible changes in potential fire behavior and associated fire risk. The effect of wind in spreading fires to neighboring structures points towards using weather forecasts as information on potential fire spread behavior. As modern weather forecasts include temperature and relative humidity predictions, there may already be sufficient information available to develop a structural fire danger rating system. Such a system may include the following steps: (1) Record weather forecasts and actual temperature and relative humidity inside and outside selected structures; (2) Develop a meteorology-data-based model to predict indoor relative humidity levels; (3) Perform controlled drying chamber experiments involving typical hygroscopic fire fuel; (4) Compare the results to the recorded values in selected structures; and (5) Develop the risk model involving the results from drying chamber experiments, weather forecasts, and separation between structures. Knowledge about the structures at risk and their use is also important. The benefits of an automated fire danger rating system would be that the society can better plan for potentially severe cold-climate fires and thereby limit the negative impacts of such fires.

Consumer Grade Weather Stations for Wooden Structure Fire Risk Assessment

“…The calculated ambient air water concentration based on the forecasted data is presented in Figure 7 together with the water concentration based on the subsequent recordings from the local meteorological station, i.e., the Haugesund Airport. It is evident from Figure 7 that the forecasts are quite good, at least for the first 48 h. This is very interesting when it comes to potential future predictions of the dry wood fire risk based merely on weather forecasts, as recently suggested [ 9 ]. When becoming alarmed by the weather forecast, the focus can be shifted to following up closely on selected homes with calibrated in-house weather stations, as e.g., presented in Figure 6 , to confirm an increasing wooden home fire risk.…”

“…The wind plays a major role in the fire spread between buildings. The weather forecasts for the next days in combination with the monitored indoor RH may then in the future probably be used to design a conflagration fire danger rating system [ 9 ].…”

Reducing Wooden Structure and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Disaster Risk through Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

“…Based on previous analysis [34], modeling the important parameters regarding the contribution of dry wooden home fire risk should be possible. Previous work on heathland [40,41] and drying of degenerated (dead) Calluna plants [37] indicate that it should also be possible to develop and communicate degenerated heathland fire danger warnings.…”

“…The potential for developing a wooden home fire risk prediction model has principally been discussed by Metallinou and Log [34] and the risk may be represented as indicated in Figure 1.…”

“…The potential for developing a wooden home fire risk prediction model has principally been discussed by Metallinou and Log [34] and the risk may be represented as indicated in Figure 1. Modeling drying may be possible when the involved fuel characteristics are known together with the parameters influencing the drying process of dead fuel, e.g., construction wood and dead wildland fuel, and potential access to water for live plants.…”