Reducing Wooden Structure and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Disaster Risk through Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

Abstract

In recent years, severe and deadly wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires have resulted in an increased focus on this particular risk to humans and property, especially in Canada, USA, Australia, and countries in the Mediterranean area. Also, in areas not previously accustomed to wildfires, such as boreal areas in Sweden, Norway, and in the Arctic, WUI fires have recently resulted in increasing concern. January 2014, the most severe wooden town fire in Norway since 1923 raged through Laerdalsøyri. Ten days later, a wildfire raged through the scattered populated community of Flatanger and destroyed even more structures. These fires came as a surprise to the fire brigades and the public. We describe and analyze a proposed way forward for exploring if and how this increasing fire incidence can be linked to concomitant changes in climate, land-use, and habitat management; and then aim at developing new dynamic adaptive fire risk assessment and management tools. We use coastal Norway as an example and focus on temporal changes in fire risk in wooden structure settlements and in the Norwegian Calluna vulgaris L. dominated WUI. In this interface, the fire risk is now increasing due to a combination of land-use changes, resulting in large areas of early successional vegetation with an accumulation of biomass, and the interactive effects of climatic changes resulting in increased drought risk. We propose a novel bow-tie framework to explore fire risk and preventive measures at various timescales (years, months, weeks, hours) as a conceptual model for exploring risk contributing factors and possibilities for risk management. Ignition is the top event of the bow-tie which has the potential development towards a fire disaster as a worst case outcome. The bow-tie framework includes factors such as changes in the built environment and natural habitat fuel moisture content due to the weather conditions, WUI fuel accumulation, possibly improved ecosystem management, contribution by civic prescribed burner groups, relevant fire risk modeling, and risk communication to the fire brigades and the public. We propose an interdisciplinary research agenda for developing this framework and improving the current risk understanding, risk communication, and risk management. This research agenda will represent important contributions in paving the road for fire disaster prevention in Norway, and may provide a model for other systems and regions.

Emergence of and Learning Processes in a Civic Group Resuming Prescribed Burning in Norway

“…Most people have and should have a barrier against igniting a fire for prescribed burning. Given the severe wildfire risk associated with degenerated Calluna stands, even in sub-zero temperatures [20,61], it is indeed required to have some basic fire safety knowledge before taking on the task to resume degenerated heathlands by prescribed burning. Upon supporting other regions to establish similar civic prescribed burner groups, it may therefore be recommended to focus on individuals who have a current or previous involvement in the fire brigades as well as an interest in sustainable farming.…”

Study of Heathland Succession, Prescribed Burning, and Future Perspectives at Kringsjå, Norway

“…The prescribed burning and sheep grazing initiated at Kringsjå seems to be an interesting example of how the previous heathland may be revitalised. To stimulate such activities elsewhere may be very important both with respect to landscape management of the red-listed nature type [102], as well as coping with the general increasing fire risk associated with abandoned heathlands [9].…”

“…Nevertheless, the area's biodiversity is still threatened by degrading and dying Calluna and increasing numbers of juniper and Sitka. Build-up of dead and live biomass reshapes the ancient Calluna dominated vegetation and pose as fire fuel [9,59]. Moreover, intensified climate change challenges the robustness of the natural environment and creates uncertainty.…”

“…New scenarios for fire safety are emerging simultaneously with transforming Calluna dominated landscapes [10,60]. In turn, changing biodiversity is affected by intensified weather conditions (droughts and floods) [9,61,62]. The alteration of climate and biodiversity changes the conditions that we live in (e.g., increasing the fire disaster risk).…”

A Fire Revealing Coastal Norway’s Wildland–Urban Interface Challenges and Possible Low-Cost Sustainable Solutions

“…During the 21st century, wildland fires represent an increasing threat in most fire-prone areas [ 1 ]. In the wildland–urban interface (WUI), they pose a hazard to people, homes, and other constructions [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]. Megafires, often defined as burning more than 10,000 ha (100 km 2 ), consume large amounts of biomass, and release huge amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere [ 5 ].…”