CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5

Levis, Samuel; Badger, Andrew M.; Drewniak, Beth; Nevison, C. D.; Ren, Xiaolin

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9

Cited by 67 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…These projections are consistent with the observed global intensification of drought conditions derived from drought indices and environmental variables such as the difference between precipitation and evaporation (Dai 2012). They also agree with crop model simulations that project an increase in global irrigation requirements (Levis et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil

et al. 2017

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil

et al. 2017

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“…• Decrease in crop yield up to 3 t/ha in parts of tropical and sub-tropical Africa due to increase in temperature • Possibility of mitigation of yield loss by irrigation and CO 2 fertilization effect • Increase in global irrigation requirements for C4 crops is 23% (without CO 2 fertilization) and 3% (with CO 2 fertilization) [118] Systematic review and meta-analysis of data…”

Section: Regions or Countries Model/methodology Major Findings Referementioning

confidence: 99%

Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review

et al. 2018

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A growing population means an ever-increasing demand for food. This global concern has led to antagonism over resources such as water and soil. Climate change can directly influence the quality and availability of these resources, thereby adversely affecting our food systems and crop productivity, especially of major cereals such as rice, wheat and maize. In this review, we have looked at the availability of resources such as water and soil based on several modeling scenarios in different regions of the world. Most of these models predict that there will be a reduction in production rates of various cereal crops. Furthermore, all the major cereal crops are known to have a higher contribution to global warming than alternative crops such as millets which should be considered in mitigating global food insecurity. In this study, we have used the data to predict which regions of the world are most adversely affected by climate change and how the cultivation of millets and other crops could aid in the reduction of stress on environmental resources.

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“…In the second step of our analysis, climate impacts on exogenous yields are obtained using a version of CLM4.5 (Levis et al 2018) in which seven explicit crop types were modeled (temperate corn, soybean, wheat, sugarcane, cotton, tropical corn, and tropical soybean). Exogenous yield impacts (Nelson et al 2014) are defined as climate effects on yield evaluated in CLM, used as exogenous input to iPETS; within iPETS, economic adjustments determine actual yield changes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming

Ren

Lü

O’Neill

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The goal of limiting global mean warming to well below 2°C, and possibly to 1.5°C, emerged in the Paris Agreement, motivated by the belief that achieving these targets 'would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change'. Understanding the climate impacts of relatively low levels of warming, in particular whether there are substantial benefits to reducing emissions to limit warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, is important for informing climate policy, but such studies are scarce. Here we evaluate the difference in global biophysical and economic impacts related to agriculture between 1.5°C-2°C warming. Given the small difference in global average temperature, accounting for uncertainties is important, and we include key uncertainties in three main components of the analysis: climate system (regional climate variability), biophysical system (crop response to CO 2 fertilization), and economic system (trade responsiveness). We are unable to meaningfully distinguish the regional agricultural impacts occurring with 1.5°C warming from those occurring with 2°C warming when accounting for these uncertainties. Under some assumptions 1.5°C implies benefits relative to 2°C, while under others it implies costs. Results are most sensitive to the uncertainty in the effect of CO 2 fertilization on crop yield.

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CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5

Cited by 67 publications

References 48 publications

Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil

Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil

Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review

Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming

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