Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders

Petitpierre, Blaise; Kueffer, Christoph; Broennimann, Olivier; Randin, Christophe F.; Daehler, Curtis C.; Guisan, Antoine

doi:10.1126/science.1215933

Cited by 747 publications

(1,135 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…A 3-4°C increase in summer temperature is expected by 2100 (Førland et al 2011), and this may affect alien species distributions on Svalbard in three ways. First, as the climate niche availability for casual aliens increasingly encompasses optimal performance thresholds (Petitpierre et al 2012;Woodin et al 2013), casual alien species will increasingly persist. Second, as the trend of increasing climatic suitability will likely also become apparent in the low Arctic and Arctic neighbouring territories, the potential donor pool of alien species will increase in diversity.…”

Section: Effects Of Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Past Arctic aliens have passed away, current ones may stay

Alsos¹,

Ware

Elven

2015

Biol Invasions

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Increased human activity and climate change are expected to increase the numbers and impact of alien species in the Arctic, but knowledge of alien species is poor in most Arctic regions. Through field investigations over the last 10 years, and review of alien vascular plant records for the high Arctic Archipelago Svalbard over the past 130 years, we explored long term trends in persistence and phenology. In total, 448 observations of 105 taxa have been recorded from 28 sites. Recent surveys at 18 of these sites revealed that alien species had disappeared at half of them. Investigations at a further 49 sites characterised by former human activity and/or current tourist landing sites did not reveal any alien species. Patterns of alien species distribution suggest that greater alien species richness is more likely to be aligned with ongoing human inhabitation than sites of transient use. The probability of an alien species being in a more advanced phenological stage increased with higher mean July temperatures. As higher mean July temperatures are positively correlated with more recent year, the latter finding suggests a clear warming effect on the increased reproductive potential of alien plants, and thus an increased potential for spread in Svalbard. Given that both human activity and temperatures are expected to increase in the future, there is need to respond in policy and action to reduce the potential for further alien species introduction and spread in the Arctic.

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Section: Effects Of Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Past Arctic aliens have passed away, current ones may stay

Alsos¹,

Ware

Elven

2015

Biol Invasions

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“…The global climate data were used to delimit the total climate space present in each range. Niche dynamic indices were only calculated for environments that occur in both ranges, but restricted to the 75 or 95% percentile of the global climate in each range to exclude any bias caused by marginal habitats and artefacts of the kernel smoother [34]. Separate analyses were performed using native species occurrences from the entire native range and for the European subset of the native range (Eurasia, west of Russia and Turkey).…”

Section: (Iii) Climatic Niche Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first two axes from a PCA of bioclimatic variables, including both species occurrences and [35]. Niche dynamics were assessed by calculating the proportion of the densities in the non-native range that occur in environments that are also occupied in the native range ('stability'), the proportion of non-native densities that occur in environments that are not occupied in the native range ('expansion') and the proportion of densities in the native range that occur in environments that are not occupied in the non-native range ('unfilling') [34]. The global climate data were used to delimit the total climate space present in each range.…”

Section: (Iii) Climatic Niche Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climatic niche in the native and non-native ranges was modelled using the framework proposed by Broennimann et al [35] and Petitpierre et al [34]. The first two axes from a PCA of bioclimatic variables, including both species occurrences and [35].…”

Section: (Iii) Climatic Niche Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following Keller et al [32], eight variables were selected that represent biologically relevant variability in temperature and precipitation at each locality and are assumed to be important for growth of L. serriola (electronic supplementary material, table S5) [33]. Additionally, global climate data were extracted at 0.58 intervals across the native (Palaearctic) and non-native (Nearctic, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Australia and New Zealand) ranges [34]. The species occurrence data were then aggregated to a resolution of 0.58 to make them more comparable with the global climate data, giving in total 3572 native and 1614 non-native occurrences.…”

Section: (Iii) Climatic Niche Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant

Alexander

2013

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

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Distributions of non‐native and native plants are not determined by the same environmental factors

Steen,

Adde,

Schlaepfer

et al. 2024

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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Global environmental change will cause shifts in species communities, with non‐native species likely replacing native ones at an unprecedented rate. This will have consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services, in addition to the ecological and economic damage caused by those non‐native species that are invasive. Understanding general patterns driving distributions of native and non‐native species is therefore vital, but no study has compared yet whether environmental variables that correlate with a species' presence differ between the two groups other than at local scale and often with very limited sample size. In this study, we focus on 141 native and non‐native congeneric plant species pairs at the scale of Switzerland. In the framework of correlative species distribution models, we used newly developed methods for efficient automated selection of a parsimonious number of predictor environmental variables to determine which ones, out of a large candidate set in eight classes, have the strongest explanatory power for both species groups. Our results indicated that variables influence the two groups in significantly different ways. Climate was by far the strongest determinant of both native and non‐native species distributions, although it had significantly more explanatory power in native species models. Models for non‐native species were significantly more influenced by anthropogenic factors, land use variables and forest cover. The presence of non‐native species was also associated with habitats with a significantly lower mean naturality value than native species. These findings provide novel empirical evidence for the different environmental factors driving native and non‐native plants' distributions and guidance for non‐native species management. Practical implications: species distribution models are an increasingly frequently advised tool for conservation management and our results provide guidelines on which covariates should be specifically considered to assess the habitat suitability of non‐native versus native species. The distributions of the former group of species are particularly important to research, as, in time, they may turn invasive. In addition, areas close to infrastructure should be scanned regularly for incipient colonizations by non‐native species, especially in as yet uninvaded areas, such as high mountains.

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Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders

Cited by 747 publications

References 58 publications

Past Arctic aliens have passed away, current ones may stay

Past Arctic aliens have passed away, current ones may stay

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant

Distributions of non‐native and native plants are not determined by the same environmental factors

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