To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) -SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 -to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
International audienceDespite considerable research on biological invasions, key areas remain poorly explored, especially ways to reduce unintentional propagule transfer. The Antarctic represents a microcosm of the situation, with the numbers of established non-native species growing. Information to help reduce potential impacts is therefore critical. We measured the propagule load of seeds, and fragments of bryophytes and lichens (the number of other plant or animal fragments was too low to draw any conclusions) carried in the clothing and gear of visitors to the Antarctic, during the 2007/08 austral summer. Samples were collected from different categories of visitors associated with national research programs and tourism and different categories of clothing and gear, new as well as used. We also collected information about the timing of travel and the regions visitors had travelled to prior to Antarctic travel. Seeds were found in 20% and 45% of tourist and science visitor samples, respectively. For bryophyte and lichen fragments the proportions were 11% and 20%, respectively. Footwear, trousers and bags belonging to field scientists were the highest risk items, especially of those personnel which had previously visited protected areas, parklands/botanic gardens or alpine areas. Tourists who visited rural/agricultural areas prior to travel, and/or travel with national programs or on smaller tourist vessels had the highest probability of transferring plant propagules. Travel either during the boreal or austral autumn months increased the probability of propagule presence. Our assessment is applicable to other areas given evidence of propagule transfer patterns in those areas that are broadly similar to those documented here. The current work provides a sound evidence base for both self-regulation (e.g. taking care of personal equipment) and organization-based regulation (e.g. issuing guidelines and holding regular inspections) to reduce propagule transfer of plants to the Antarctic
Increased human activity and climate change are expected to increase the numbers and impact of alien species in the Arctic, but knowledge of alien species is poor in most Arctic regions. Through field investigations over the last 10 years, and review of alien vascular plant records for the high Arctic Archipelago Svalbard over the past 130 years, we explored long term trends in persistence and phenology. In total, 448 observations of 105 taxa have been recorded from 28 sites. Recent surveys at 18 of these sites revealed that alien species had disappeared at half of them. Investigations at a further 49 sites characterised by former human activity and/or current tourist landing sites did not reveal any alien species. Patterns of alien species distribution suggest that greater alien species richness is more likely to be aligned with ongoing human inhabitation than sites of transient use. The probability of an alien species being in a more advanced phenological stage increased with higher mean July temperatures. As higher mean July temperatures are positively correlated with more recent year, the latter finding suggests a clear warming effect on the increased reproductive potential of alien plants, and thus an increased potential for spread in Svalbard. Given that both human activity and temperatures are expected to increase in the future, there is need to respond in policy and action to reduce the potential for further alien species introduction and spread in the Arctic.
Citation: Rumpf SB, Alsos IG, Ware C (2018) Prevention of microbial species introductions to the Arctic: The efficacy of footwear disinfection measures on cruise ships. NeoBiota 37: 37-49. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.37.22088 AbstractBiosecurity measures are commonly used to prevent the introduction of non-native species to natural environments globally, yet the efficacy of practices is rarely tested under operational conditions. A voluntary biosecurity measure was trialled in the Norwegian high Arctic following concern that non-native species might be transferred to the region on the footwear of travellers. Passengers aboard an expedition cruise ship disinfected their footwear with the broad spectrum disinfectant Virkon S prior to and in-between landing at sites around the remote Svalbard archipelago. The authors evaluated the efficacy of simply stepping through a disinfectant foot bath, which is the most common practice of footwear disinfection aboard expedition cruise ships in the Arctic. This was compared to a more time consuming and little-used method involving drying disinfected footwear, as proposed by other studies. The two practices were evaluated by measuring microbial growth on paired footwear samples before and after disinfection under both conditions.Step-through disinfection did not substantially reduce microbial growth on the footwear. Allowing disinfected footwear to dry, however, reduced the microbial burden significantly to lower levels. Thus, the currently adopted procedures used aboard ships are ineffective at removing microbial burden and are only effective when footwear is given more time to dry than currently granted under operational conditions. These findings underscore results from empirical research performed elsewhere and suggest the need to better relay this information to practitioners. It is suggested that footwear should minimally be wiped dry after step-through disinfection as a reasonable compromise between biosecurity and practicability.
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