Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus

Tong, Shilu; Nicholls, Neville; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S.; Patz, Jonathan A.; McMichael, Anthony J.

doi:10.1111/j.1445-5994.2005.00935.x

Cited by 36 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is possible that the humidity variations in Darwin will prove difficult to model because of what Tong and associates termed "threshold theories" (Tong et al 2004). So far only two published articles have incorporated climatic factors together with vectors into predictive models for RRV infections (Tong et al 2005, Woodruff et al 2006). All the literature and models described in this article reflect the dearth of information from the Northern Territory, the region with the highest incidence rates of RRV and BFV in Australia (Communicable Diseases Australia 2006b, Whelan et al 1997.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Early analysis of RRV disease tested the relationships between vectors and RRV disease, or climatic variables and RRV, including humidity, temperature, rainfall, and tidal conditions (Gatton et al 2004, Jones et al 1991, Tai 1992, Tong and Hu 2001, Whelan et al 2003. More recently both vector and climatic data have been incorporated into the same models (Tong et al 2005, Woodruff et al 2006. Lags have been employed to account for virus/mosquito lifecycle, incubation period in the human host, and presentation to a medical practitioner.…”

Section: Models Of Rrv and Bfv Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Ross River Virus and Barmah Forest Virus Infections: A Review of History, Ecology, and Predictive Models, with Implications for Tropical Northern Australia

Jacups

Whelan

Currie³

2008

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

140

128

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The purpose of the present article is to present a review of the Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) literature in relation to potential implications for future disease in tropical northern Australia. Ross River virus infection is the most common and most widespread arboviral disease in Australia, with an average of 4,800 national notifications annually. Of recent concern is the sudden rise in BFV infections; the 2005-2006 summer marked the largest BFV epidemic on record in Australia, with 1,895 notifications. Although not life-threatening, infection with either virus can cause arthritis, myalgia, and fatigue for 6 months or longer, resulting in substantial morbidity and economic impact. The geographic distribution of mosquito species and their seasonal activity is determined in large part by temperature and rainfall. Predictive models can be useful tools in providing early warning systems for epidemics of RRV and BFV infection. Various models have been developed to predict RRV outbreaks, but these appear to be mostly only regionally valid, being dependent on local ecological factors. Difficulties have arisen in developing useful models for the tropical northern parts of Australia, and to date no models have been developed for the Northern Territory. Only one model has been developed for predicting BFV infections using climate and tide variables. It is predicted that the exacerbation of current greenhouse conditions will result in longer periods of high mosquito activity in the tropical regions where RRV and BFV are already common. In addition, the endemic locations may expand further within temperate regions, and epidemics may become more frequent in those areas. Further development of predictive models should benefit public health planning by providing early warning systems of RRV and BFV infection outbreaks in different geographical locations.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Models Of Rrv and Bfv Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

Ross River Virus and Barmah Forest Virus Infections: A Review of History, Ecology, and Predictive Models, with Implications for Tropical Northern Australia

Jacups

Whelan

Currie³

2008

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

140

128

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Other modeling that is relevant includes research on the relationship between mosquitoes and other variables that are likely to be affected by climate change. An example is research into Ross River virus in Queensland, Australia whereby relationships are shown between the disease and climate (especially rainfall) and tides (sea level) Tong et al 2005), climatic variability (Tong and Hu 2002;Tong et al 2004) or all of these (Naish et al 2006). Crane et al (2005), in the context of chemical control of insects, developed a risk model for climate change and its impacts on insect-borne disease.…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Wetlands and mosquitoes: a review

Dale

Knight

2008

Wetlands Ecol Manage

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This review brings together information on mosquitoes, the diseases they transmit and the wetlands that provide habitats for the immature stages (eggs and larvae). Wetland values are mentioned, though the main literature on this does not generally overlap the mosquito issue. Mosquito management is overviewed to include: the use of larvicides, source reduction in intertidal wetlands and management in freshwater systems. There is not a great deal of information on mosquitoes and freshwater systems, except for constructed wetlands and they are considered separately. We then consider restoration mainly in the context of wetlands that have been the subject of habitat modification for mosquito control. Land use and climate change, as they affect mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit, are also reviewed, as this will affect wetlands via management activities. Finally the review addresses the critical issue of balancing health, both human and environmental, in an adaptive framework. It concludes that there is a need to ensure that both mosquito and wetland management communicate and integrate to sustain wetland and human health.

show abstract

“…Because RRV infection is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, there has been an increasing research interest in the assessment of major determinants of RRV transmission (Hu et al 2004, 2006a, 2006b; Jacups et al 2008, Kelly-Hope et al 2004a; Tong et al 2002, 2005; Woodruff et al 2006). To identify current knowledge gaps and research needs, we critically reviewed the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of RRV disease.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

Tong

Dale

Nicholls

et al. 2008

Environ Health Perspect

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundArbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined.ObjectiveOur goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches.ResultsThe body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system.ConclusionsThe analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management.

show abstract

Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus

Cited by 36 publications

References 15 publications

Ross River Virus and Barmah Forest Virus Infections: A Review of History, Ecology, and Predictive Models, with Implications for Tropical Northern Australia

Ross River Virus and Barmah Forest Virus Infections: A Review of History, Ecology, and Predictive Models, with Implications for Tropical Northern Australia

Wetlands and mosquitoes: a review

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About