Recent reports of a novel group of flaviviruses that replicate only in mosquitoes and appear to spread through insect populations via vertical transmission have emerged from around the globe. To date, there is no information on the presence or prevalence of these insect-specific flaviviruses (ISFs) in Australian mosquito species. To assess whether such viruses occur locally, we used reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and flavivirus universal primers that are specific to the NS5 gene to detect these viruses in mosquito pools collected from the Northern Territory. Of 94 pools of mosquitoes, 13 were RT-PCR positive, and of these, 6 flavivirus isolates were obtained by inoculation of mosquito cell culture. Sequence analysis of the NS5 gene revealed that these isolates are genetically and phylogenetically similar to ISFs reported from other parts of the world. The entire coding region of one isolate (designated 56) was sequenced and shown to have approximately 63.7% nucleotide identity and 66.6% amino acid identity with its closest known relative (Nakiwogo virus) indicating that the prototype Australian ISF represents a new species. All isolates were obtained from Coquillettidia xanthogaster mosquitoes. The new virus is tentatively named Palm Creek virus (PCV) after its place of isolation. We also demonstrated that prior infection of cultured mosquito cells with PCV suppressed subsequent replication of the medically significant West Nile and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses by 10–43 fold (1 to 1.63 log) at 48 hr post-infection, suggesting that superinfection exclusion can occur between ISFs and vertebrate-infecting flaviviruses despite their high level of genetic diversity. We also generated several monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that are specific to the NS1 protein of PCV, and these represent the first ISF-specific mAbs reported to date.

The purpose of the present article is to present a review of the Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) literature in relation to potential implications for future disease in tropical northern Australia. Ross River virus infection is the most common and most widespread arboviral disease in Australia, with an average of 4,800 national notifications annually. Of recent concern is the sudden rise in BFV infections; the 2005-2006 summer marked the largest BFV epidemic on record in Australia, with 1,895 notifications. Although not life-threatening, infection with either virus can cause arthritis, myalgia, and fatigue for 6 months or longer, resulting in substantial morbidity and economic impact. The geographic distribution of mosquito species and their seasonal activity is determined in large part by temperature and rainfall. Predictive models can be useful tools in providing early warning systems for epidemics of RRV and BFV infection. Various models have been developed to predict RRV outbreaks, but these appear to be mostly only regionally valid, being dependent on local ecological factors. Difficulties have arisen in developing useful models for the tropical northern parts of Australia, and to date no models have been developed for the Northern Territory. Only one model has been developed for predicting BFV infections using climate and tide variables. It is predicted that the exacerbation of current greenhouse conditions will result in longer periods of high mosquito activity in the tropical regions where RRV and BFV are already common. In addition, the endemic locations may expand further within temperate regions, and epidemics may become more frequent in those areas. Further development of predictive models should benefit public health planning by providing early warning systems of RRV and BFV infection outbreaks in different geographical locations.

Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north‐east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease‐transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector‐control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito‐borne diseases. Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector‐borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission.

Abstract. The growing demand for efficient and effective mosquito control requires a better understanding of vector population dynamics and how these are modified by endogenous and exogenous factors. A long-term (11-year) monitoring data set describing the relative abundance of the saltmarsh mosquito (Aedes vigilax) in the greater Darwin region, northern Australia, was examined in a suite of Gompertz-logistic (GL) models with and without hypothesized environmental correlates (high tide frequency, rainfall, and relative humidity). High tide frequency and humidity were hypothesized to influence saltmarsh mosquito abundance positively, and rainfall was hypothesized to correlate negatively by reducing the availability of suitable habitats (moist substrata) required by ovipositing adult female mosquitoes. We also examined whether environmental correlates explained the variance in seasonal carrying capacity (K ) because environmental stochasticity is hypothesized to modify population growth rate (r), carrying capacity, or both. Current and lagged-time effects were tested by comparing alternative population dynamics models using three different information criteria (Akaike's Information Criterion [corrected; AIC c ], Bayesian Information Criterion [BIC], and cross-validation [C -V]). The GL model with a two-month lag without environmental effects explained 31% of the deviance in population growth rate. This increased to .70% under various model combinations of high tide frequency, rainfall, and relative humidity, of which, high tide frequency and rainfall had the highest contributions. Temporal variation in K was explained weakly by high tide frequency, and there was some evidence that the filling of depressions to reduce standing water availability has reduced Aedes vigilax carrying capacity over the study period. This study underscores the need to consider simultaneously both types of drivers (endogenous and exogenous) when predicting mosquito abundance and population growth patterns. This work also indicates that climate change, via continued increases in rainfall and higher expected frequencies and intensities of high tide events with sea level rise, will alter mosquito abundance trends in northern Australia.