Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance

Vizcaíno, Miren; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Jungclaus, Johann; Schurgers, Guy

doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0591-y

Cited by 118 publications

(142 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…The most significant difference arises from the contribution of Greenland. Consistent with previous estimates (3)(4)(5)(6)62), the rate of the sea-level contribution from Greenland increases with temperature. The range corresponds to the uncertainty estimate as detailed in the text.…”

Section: Sea-level Commitment For the Next 2000 Yearssupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Current models (4,5) suggest that the required warming is much larger than anticipated in the near future (equivalent to ∼4 times preindustrial level of CO 2 or higher). Here we only discuss the commitment up to 4°C of warming, neglecting the possible deglaciation of East Antarctica.…”

Section: Modeled Components Of Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Radic and Hock's model (20) is forced by modified monthly temperature and precipitation series for 2001-2300 from four general circulation models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project CMIP-3 (U.K.MOHadCM3, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, and CSIROMk3.0), using the A1B emission scenario, whereas the model by Marzeion et al (21) is forced by temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 GCMs of CMIP-5, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP)-8. 5.…”

Section: Modeled Components Of Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…climate change | climate impacts | sea-level change S ea-level projections show a robust, albeit highly uncertain, increase by the end of this century (1,2), and there is strong evidence that sea level will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed (3)(4)(5)(6). At the same time, inertia in the climate and global carbon system causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased (6), raising the question of how much sea-level rise we are committed to on a multimillennial time scale for different levels of global mean temperature increase.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

Levermann

Clark

Marzeion

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

262

224

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Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sealevel rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m°C −1 and 1.2 m°C −1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m°C −1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.climate change | climate impacts | sea-level change S ea-level projections show a robust, albeit highly uncertain, increase by the end of this century (1, 2), and there is strong evidence that sea level will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed (3-6). At the same time, inertia in the climate and global carbon system causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased (6), raising the question of how much sea-level rise we are committed to on a multimillennial time scale for different levels of global mean temperature increase. During the 20th century, sea level rose by approximately 0.2 m (7, 8), and it is estimated to rise by significantly less than 2 m by 2100, even for the strongest scenarios considered (9). At the same time, past climate records suggest a sea-level sensitivity of as much as several meters per degree of warming during previous intervals of Earth history when global temperatures were similar to or warmer than present (10, 11). Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers (7), the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea level indicates important contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Because of the uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, additional strategies are req...

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Section: Sea-level Commitment For the Next 2000 Yearssupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Modeled Components Of Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Modeled Components Of Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

Levermann

Clark

Marzeion

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

262

224

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Graversen et al 2011;Rae et al 2012;Yoshimori and Abe-Ouchi 2012;Nick et al 2013) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (e.g. Vizcaíno et al 2010;Huybrechts et al 2011;Bindschadler et al 2013) to estimate their contributions. The key advantage of this modelling approach is that it can address changes in the relative importance of many different physical processes involved.…”

Section: Range In Global Time-mean Sea Level Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum

Lowe

Meier

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Increasing numbers of regional climate change scenario assessments have become available for the North Sea. A critical review of the regional studies has helped identify robust changes, challenges, uncertainties and specific recommendations for future research. Coherent findings from the climate change impact studies reviewed in this chapter include overall increases in sea level and ocean temperature, a freshening of the North Sea, an increase in ocean acidification and a decrease in primary production. However, findings from multi-model ensembles show the amplitude and spatial pattern of the projected changes in sea level, temperature, salinity and primary production are not consistent among the various regional projections and remain uncertain. Different approaches are used to downscale global climate change impacts, each with advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of the downscaling method employed, the regional studies are ultimately affected by the forcing global climate models. Projecting regional climate change impacts on biogeochemistry and primary production is currently limited by a lack of consistent downscaling approaches for marine and terrestrial impacts. Substantial natural variability in the North Sea region from annual to multi-decadal time scales is a particular challenge for projecting regional climate change impacts. Natural variability dominates long-term trends in wind fields and strongly wind-influenced characteristics like local sea level, storm C. Schrum

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Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to A.D. 2300

Vizcaíno

Mikolajewicz

Ziemen

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

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Recent observations indicate a high sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to climate change. We examine the coupling between the GrIS surface mass balance, elevation, and dynamical flow with one of the few coupled GrIS and atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Bidirectional coupling from the early Holocene reveals a growing present-day GrIS in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We identify atmospheric sources of biases in the simulated present-day GrIS and assess the GrIS sensitivity to future greenhouse gas forcing through three Representative Concentration Pathways and their extensions and to climate variability. The elevation-surface mass balance feedback contributes to future GrIS mass loss with 8-11% (by 2100), depending on the forcing scenario, and 24-31% (by 2300). Climate variability causes a 2.5 times spread in the magnitude of the simulated present-day GrIS mass trends in a three-member ensemble. Our results represent a first step toward more advanced higher resolution coupled modeling of GrIS and climate evolution.

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Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance

Cited by 118 publications

References 55 publications

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

Projected Change—North Sea

Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to A.D. 2300

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