Climate change risks for African agriculture

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from −100% to +168% in econometric, from −84% to +62% in process-based, and from −57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

The impact of climate change on cropland productivity: evidence from satellite based products at the river basin scale in Africa

“…Some increases are predicted in the Sudano-Sahelian belt by the 2050s, but generally don't persist in the 2090s. In their literature review of climate change impacts on African agriculture, Roudier et al (2011) find a median yield loss of 11 %, while Müller et al (2011) note a range of −100 to +168 % relative to current production levels.…”

Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

“…Beyond increases in temperature, climate change in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to cause changes in rainfall intensity (Thomas et al 2007;Songok et al 2011a), increases in the incidence of extreme events such as droughts and floods (Richard et al 2001;Fauchereau et al 2003;New et al 2006;Niang et al 2014;Tschakert et al 2010), increases in desertification (Reich et al 2001), and alterations in certain disease vectors causing changes in the spatial and temporal transmission of infectious diseases (Hay et al 2002;Chen et al 2006). Expected impacts include shortened or disrupted growing seasons, reductions in the area suitable for agriculture, and declines in agricultural yields in many regions of subSaharan Africa (Niang et al 2014;Müller et al 2011;Sarr 2012).…”

Assessing the food security outcomes of industrial crop expansion in smallholder settings: insights from cotton production in Northern Ghana and sugarcane production in Central Ethiopia

“…In other words, these trade-offs can manifest at the household, local, regional or global scale, and can have varying effects at household food security (Griggs et al 2014;Kanter et al 2016;Yillia 2016). For example, the production of different bioenergy crops related in Africa can have important implications for carbon stocks and as a result the global climate (e.g., Elshout et al 2015;Romeu-Dalmau et al 2016), affecting thus the overall agricultural system considering that climate change is a major risk for agriculture in the continent (Muller et al 2011;Rosenzweig et al 2014). Furthermore, crop adoption choices at the household level can sometimes go beyond ''rational decisions'' of maximizing agricultural yield and household income, and are often influenced by cultural preferences, false/imperfect information (e.g., as in the case of jatropha across Africa) and sometimes the desire to minimize potential health and environmental degradation (Rufino et al 2010;Gasparatos et al 2015;Kanter et al 2016).…”