The impact of climate change on cropland productivity: evidence from satellite based products at the river basin scale in Africa

Blanc, Élodie; Strobl, Eric

doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0604-4

Cited by 24 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(15 reference statements)

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“…In order to measure changes in agricultural productivity, and in turn, food security at a global grid-level scale, we require a measure that can provide a common unit of productivity across different crop types to facilitate comparison and aggregation over all types (Hicke, Lobell and Asner, 2004). Following the past literature in economics (Strobl and Strobl, 2011;Blanc and Strobl, 2013;Blanc and Strobl, 2014) and remote sensing (Lobell et al, 2002;Heinsch et al 2005;Turner et al 2006;Zhang et al, 2008) we use a satellite-based estimate of net primary production (NPP) as a proxy for crop productivity. NPP is linearly related to the amount of solar energy that plants absorb over a growing season (Running et al 2004).…”

Section: Crop Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, once an area has been identified as cropland, NPP can calculate the rate at which solar energy is converted into chemical energy during photosynthesis and stored as biomass in grams of carbon per square meter on that land. It also provides a measure of nutritional value since the availability of carbon stored in the form of plant material for food consumption can be roughly converted into kilocalories (Blanc and Strobl, 2013). 6 NPP, therefore, serves as the principal energy source for ecosystems and, in turn, for human populations that depend upon them (Abdi et al 2014).…”

Section: Crop Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drenched Fields and Parched Farms: Evidence Along the Extensive and Intensive Margins

2018

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Climate models predict an increase in rainfall variability, higher frequency of extreme water events, and deeper water scarcity over the coming decades. These changes could have profound impacts on the global agricultural sector. In this paper, we explore how rainfall variability impacts agricultural production along two margins: the intensity of output (yields) and the extensiveness of production, and how water infrastructure influences this relationship. Using global, gridded datasets on net primary productivity (NPP), land cover, and weather, we find that, on average, contemporaneous wet shocks tend to increase agricultural productivity. Contemporaneous dry shocks decrease crop productivity, while repeated dry shocks also tend to increase the rate of cropland expansion, perhaps as an adaptation technique to compensate for lower yields. We argue that the theoretical underpinnings for these results can be found in the "safety-first" model, where the priority of the economic agent is to generate a threshold level of income or output. Further, using an instrumental variables based identification strategy for dam construction, we find that the buffering impact of upstream irrigation dams varies by geography, climate, and income levels. Upstream dams, in general, decrease the extent of cropland expansion to persistent dry shocks across different climatic zones and income levels, yet in developing countries with arid climates, they appear to accentuate the adverse effects of dry shocks on agricultural productivity. One possible reason for this relationship which we find evidence for is mal-adaptation, where the presence of dams incentivize farmers to plant waterintensive crops in otherwise unsuitable areas. Other potential reasons which we discuss include the management of dams, particularly if preference is given to hydropower generation during lean seasonal flows, or more generally if water storage is inadequate. We also find that having access to vast groundwater reserves dampens the negative effects of dry shocks on cropland productivity. Differentiating between uses and sources can, therefore, provide key insights into the margins along which irrigation can buffer productivity from rainfall variability.

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Section: Crop Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Crop Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Drenched Fields and Parched Farms: Evidence Along the Extensive and Intensive Margins

2018

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“…However, we need to understand the relationships between hydrological change and local and global economic activities. Blanc and Strobl (2013) demonstrated significant reductions in cropland productivity in the future based on satellite data. Sissoko et al (2011) show that in the West African Sahel, early warning systems including an operational agrometeorological information system are already providing farmers with crucial information.…”

Section: Connected Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of aspects of hydrological sciences research in Africa over the past decade

Hughes

Jewitt

Mahé³

et al. 2015

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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This review assesses the potential of the African continent to contribute to the three main targets of the new science decade of IAHS (Panta Rhei): understanding, estimation and prediction, and science in practice. The continent has an extremely diverse climate and physical environment, and is faced with many problems in the interaction between hydrology and society. While inadequate financial and institutional resources often constrain the pursuit of high-level scientific research, there is substantial hydrological research capacity within Africa. The topics covered over the past decade have partly anticipated some of the research themes adopted as part of Panta Rhei. African hydrological scientists should therefore be in a better position to make future contributions, largely because their research is already grounded in applications linked to societal needs. Some of the papers reviewed and included in the special issue of Hydrological Sciences Journal A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t 2 introduced in this paper reflect international partnerships, while others reflect emerging partnerships between institutions within Africa.

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“…Time-varying standard agricultural measures of cropland productivity, such as crop yields, do not exist for South Africa at a spatial resolution as fine as our hydrological regions. 9 We thus follow Blanc and Strobl (2013) and use two satellite data sources. The first is the Global Land Cover 2000 data set (GEM 2011), hereinafter called GLC 2000, which classifies land cover across the globe into 22 distinct land cover categories at a 1 km resolution based on images acquired by the SPOT 4 satellite during 2000.…”

Section: Cropland Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Small Better? A Comparison of the Effect of Large and Small Dams on Cropland Productivity in South Africa

Blanc¹,

Strobl²

2013

The World Bank Economic Review

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We estimate and compare the effects of small and large irrigation dams on cropland productivity in South Africa. To this end, we construct a panel data set of South African river basins. The econometric analysis reveals that although large dams increase cropland productivity downstream, they have a negative effect on cropland within the vicinity. However, their existence can enhance the relatively small positive impact of local small dams. Although a cost-benefit analysis of irrigation benefits shows that small dams may be more viable than large ones, large dams can play a potentially important role within a system of both types of dams. JEL codes: O20, Q19

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The impact of climate change on cropland productivity: evidence from satellite based products at the river basin scale in Africa

Cited by 24 publications

References 21 publications

Drenched Fields and Parched Farms: Evidence Along the Extensive and Intensive Margins

Drenched Fields and Parched Farms: Evidence Along the Extensive and Intensive Margins

A review of aspects of hydrological sciences research in Africa over the past decade

Is Small Better? A Comparison of the Effect of Large and Small Dams on Cropland Productivity in South Africa

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