Climate‐change not only threatens bird populations but also challenges our ability to monitor them

Fox, Anthony D.; Nielsen, Rasmus Due; Petersen, Ib Krag

doi:10.1111/ibi.12675

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…We acknowledge that we didn't take this potential uncertainty into account. Consequently, our ability to measure species distribution change is challenged in these ice-dominated regions, where the community adjustment to climate warming is likely underestimated (Fox et al 2019).…”

Section: Heterogeneity Of Temperature and Community Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Gaget

Pavón‐Jordán

Johnston

et al. 2021

Conservation Biology

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Section: Heterogeneity Of Temperature and Community Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Gaget

Pavón‐Jordán

Johnston

et al. 2021

Conservation Biology

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“…This can be observed as an overall increase in winter abundance of waterbirds, because part of the population of some species (mainly diving ducks) that formerly wintered further to the southwest now remain in the Baltic Sea (Pavón-Jordán et al, 2019). Many species show decreasing trends in abundance in the southern parts of their wintering ranges (typically in western and southern Europe) but increases near the northern edge of their distribution, typically the Baltic Sea region (MacLean et al, 2008;Skov et al, 2011;Aarvak et al, 2013;Lehikoinen et al, 2013;Pavón-Jordán et al, 2015;Nilsson and Haas, 2016;Marchowski et al, 2017;Fox et al, 2019). Similar shifts are seen in species that traditionally wintered in the Baltic Sea, but currently show declining wintering numbers there, as part of the population now winters in the White, Barents and Kara seas (Fox et al, 2019).…”

Section: Waterbirdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics is dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterized by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern sub-basins and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern sub-basins.

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“…However, this short-term change should be treated with caution, as it may well represent a swing typical of fluctuating populations, especially since the latest trend assessment indicates a decline in numbers (Wetlands International 2019). An additional element is climate driven distribution changes, which can complicate the trend analyses (Fox et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fishery bycatch is among the most important threats to the European population of Greater ScaupAythya marila

Marchowski

Jankowiak

Ławicki³

et al. 2020

Bird Conservation International

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SummaryFor Greater Scaup Aythya marila, classified as ‘Vulnerable’ on the European Red List of Birds, the south-western Baltic Sea is one of the most important wintering sites in Europe. In this area, a large concentration of gillnet fishery temporally overlaps periods of the most abundant occurrence of foraging diving birds. The aim of the article is to show how bycatch can impact the population of a diving duck. To assess this, we calculate the Potential Biological Removal (PBR) for the studied Greater Scaup population and we model the population change according to age-structured matrix models. Summing all the available recent figures on Greater Scaup bycatch in north-west Europe yields an estimated mean annual total of 3,991 individuals (2% of the flyway population). For a baseline stable population, an age-structured matrix model indicates that at this bycatch level the Greater Scaup population that winters in north-west Europe will decrease by 36% over the next 30 years, qualifying the status of the population as ‘Vulnerable’ according to IUCN criteria. As this population also experiences decline prior to bycatch, this decrease will be 57%, which qualifies the status as ‘Endangered’. PBR as an indicator of population vitality does not work in our case because the PBR-informed allowable bycatch values have a significantly negative impact on the population. Our results indicate unambiguously that fishery bycatch is among the most important threats responsible for the Greater Scaup’s decline. While recent data suggest that some improvement has taken place in the species’ status over the last 10 years, measures to protect Greater Scaup from bycatch are required. The solution should involve the prohibition of gillnet fishing in selected key sites and the use of mitigation techniques in other areas.

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Climate‐change not only threatens bird populations but also challenges our ability to monitor them

Cited by 12 publications

References 33 publications

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Fishery bycatch is among the most important threats to the European population of Greater ScaupAythya marila

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