At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.
Climate change is predicted to cause changes in species distributions and several studies report margin range shifts in some species. However, the reported changes rarely concern a species' entire distribution and are not always linked to climate change. Here, we demonstrate strong north-eastwards shifts in the centres of gravity of the entire wintering range of three common waterbird species along the North-West Europe flyway during the past three decades. These shifts correlate with an increase of 3.8 °C in early winter temperature in the north-eastern part of the wintering areas, where bird abundance increased exponentially, corresponding with decreases in abundance at the south-western margin of the wintering ranges. This confirms the need to re-evaluate conservation site safeguard networks and associated biodiversity monitoring along the flyway, as new important wintering areas are established further north and east, and highlights the general urgency of conservation planning in a changing world. Range shifts in wintering waterbirds may also affect hunting pressure, which may alter bag sizes and lead to population-level consequences.
Evidence of declines in insect populations has recently received considerable scientific and societal attention. However, the lack of long‐term insect monitoring makes it difficult to assess whether declines are geographically widespread. By contrast, bird populations are well monitored and often used as indicators of environmental change. We compared the population trends of European insectivorous birds with those of other birds to assess whether patterns in bird population trends were consistent with declines of insects. We further examined whether declines were evident for insectivores with different habitats, foraging strata, and other ecological preferences. Bird population trends were estimated for Europe (1990–2015) and Denmark (1990–2016). On average, insectivores declined over the study period (13% across Europe and 28% in Denmark), whereas omnivores had stable populations. Seedeaters also declined (28% across Europe; 34% in Denmark), but this assessment was based on fewer species than for other groups. The effects of insectivory were stronger for farmland species (especially grassland species), for ground feeders, and for cold‐adapted species. Insectivory was associated with long‐distance migration, which was also linked to population declines. However, many insectivores had stable populations, especially habitat generalists. Our findings suggest that the decline of insectivores is primarily associated with agricultural intensification and loss of grassland habitat. The loss of both seed and insect specialists indicates an overall trend toward bird communities dominated by diet generalists.
Intensification of agriculture since the 1950s has enhanced the availability, competitive ability, crude protein content, digestibility and extended growing seasons of forage grasses. Spilled cereal grain also provides a rich food source in autumn and in winter. Long-distance migratory herbivorous geese have rapidly exploited these feeding opportunities and most species have shown expansions in range and population size in the last 50 years. Results of long-term studies are presented from two Arctic-breeding populations, the Svalbard pink-footed goose and the Greenland white-fronted goose (GWFG). GWFGs have shown major habitat shifts since the 1950s from winter use of plant storage organs in natural wetlands to feeding on intensively managed farmland. Declines in local density on, and abandonment of, unmodified traditional wintering habitat and increased reproductive success among those birds wintering on farmland suggest that density-dependent processes were not the cause of the shift in this wintersite-faithful population. Based on enhanced nutrient and energy intake rates, we argue that observed shifts in both species from traditionally used natural habitats to intensively managed farmland on spring staging and wintering areas have not necessarily been the result of habitat destruction. Increased food intake rates and potential demographic benefits resulting from shifts to highly profitable foraging opportunities on increasingly intensively managed farmland, more likely explain increases in goose numbers in these populations. The geographically exploratory behaviour of subdominant individuals enables the discovery and exploitation of new winter feeding opportunities and hence range expansion. Recent destruction of traditional habitats and declines in farming at northern latitudes present fresh challenges to the well being of both populations. More urgently, Canada geese colonizing breeding and moulting habitats of white-fronted geese in Greenland are further affecting their reproductive output.
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