Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Gaget, Élie; Pavón‐Jordán, Diego; Johnston, Alison; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Sandercock, Brett K.; Soultan, Alaaeldin; Azafzaf, Hichem; Bendjedda, Nadjiba; Bino, Taulant; Božič, Luka; Clausen, Preben; Dakki, Mohamed; Devos, Koen; Domșa, Cristi; Encarnação, Vítor; Erciyas-Yavuz, Kiraz; Faragó, Sándor; Frost, Teresa; Gaudard, Clémence; Gosztonyi, Lívia; Haas, Fredrik; Hornman, Menno; Langendoen, Tom; Ieronymidou, Christina; Kostyushin, Vasiliy A.; Lewis, Lesley; Lorentsen, Svein Håkon; Luigujõe, Leho; Meissner, Włodzimierz; Mikuška, Tibor; Molina, Blas; Musilová, Zuzana; Natykanets, Viktor; Paquet, Jean Yves; Petkov, Nicky; Portolou, Danae; Ridzoň, Jozef; Sayoud, Samir; Šćiban, Marko; Šniaukšta, Laimonas; Stīpniece, Antra; Strebel, Nicolas; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Topić, Goran; Uzunova, Danka; Vizi, Andrej; Wahl, Johannes; Zenatello, Marco; Brommer, Jon E.

doi:10.1111/cobi.13648

Cited by 22 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(146 reference statements)

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“…Although the community composition changes rapidly, the changes are not fast enough to track the thermal isocline shifts (Devictor et al, 2012;Gaget et al, 2021). How species respond to changes in winter temperature seems, however, to be highly species or group specific (Pavón-Jordán et al, 2019).…”

Section: 26(6) Waterbirdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

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Section: 26(6) Waterbirdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

et al. 2022

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“…It is well established that protected areas are an important pillar in climate change adaptation strategies for birds, as they can safeguard key sites and facilitate the redistribution of species (Hiley et al 2014, Pavo ´n-Jordan et al 2015, Gaget et al 2020. The Critical Site Network represents a list of sites that would qualify as Ramsar Sites under Criteria 2 or 6, and as Special Protection Areas under Article 4 of the EU Birds Directive.…”

Section: Climate Change Adaptation Requirementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Site management objectives should also explicitly include objectives for assisting climate change adaptation of waterbird populations, and adaptation measures should be implemented on the ground. Gaget et al (2020) illustrated clear differences in the ability of Natura 2000 sites to accommodate range-shifts between those with or without management objectives for birds.…”

Section: Climate Change Adaptation Requirementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change exposure of waterbird species in the African-Eurasian flyways

Nagy

Breiner

Anand

et al. 2021

Bird Conservation International

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Summary Climate change presents a particularly complex challenge in the context of flyway scale conservation of migratory bird species as it requires coordinated action by multiple countries along these species’ migratory routes. Coordinating conservation responses requires understanding the vulnerability of species and their habitats to climate change at the flyway scale throughout each species’ annual cycle. To contribute to such understanding, we used species distribution models to assess the exposure to climate change of waterbird species that are the focus of the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA). We found that the species with the smallest proportion of their current range projected to be climatically suitable by 2050 (those whose distributions respond to changes in water availability but that do not perform synchronised migration) are dispersive species in the Afrotropical biogeographic realm, and migratory species in their breeding season, particularly Arctic breeding waders. These species also have the most limited availability of newly suitable areas. Projections for most other Palearctic migratory waterbird species suggest that losses of suitable areas in their current passage and wintering ranges may be largely offset by new areas becoming climatically suitable. The majority of migratory Palearctic waterbirds in the breeding season and Afrotropical waterbirds are widely dispersed with only a small proportion of their populations currently supported by ‘Critical Sites’ (i.e. sites that are either important for Globally Threatened Species or support 1% of the bioregional population of any waterbird species). This makes it unlikely that climate change adaptation measures focusing only on key sites will be sufficient to counter the predicted range losses. Therefore, climate change adaptation responses should also be implemented at the landscape scale for Afrotropical waterbirds and for breeding populations of Palearctic migrant waterbirds.

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“…artificial wetlands, long-term monitoring, range-shift drivers, waterbirds, wetland type more favourable for them to expand towards these previously unsuitable regions; see e.g. Gaget et al, 2021.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…with high average winter temperature across its wintering distribution) as the winter weather conditions become more favourable for them to expand towards these previously unsuitable regions; see e.g. Gaget et al., 2021.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%