Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land

Hanewinkel, Marc; Cullmann, Dominik A.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Nabuurs, Gert‐Jan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

doi:10.1038/nclimate1687

Cited by 849 publications

(630 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Increased mortality from drought and disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks is furthermore expected under climate change ). Due to climate-induced shifts in species' niches, a changing dynamic of forest regeneration is also likely, possibly leading to altered forest composition in the future (Hanewinkel et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

Seidl

Aggestam

Rammer

et al. 2015

Ambio

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Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

Seidl

Aggestam

Rammer

et al. 2015

Ambio

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“…(Hanewinkel et al, 2013), the most important commercial conifer in Europe. This forest species spreads from Siberia to the Northern and Central Europe extending the area of its natural range area to the Alps and Balkan Peninsula.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monoterpene responses to interacting effects of drought stress and infection by the fungus Heterobasidion parviporum in two clones of Norway spruce (Picea abies)

Madmony

Tognetti

Zamponi

et al. 2018

Environmental and Experimental Botany

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A B S T R A C TTo study simultaneous biotic and abiotic stress effects on monoterpene mediated defence response, four-year-old seedlings of two clones of Picea abies (c386: "relatively resistant" c386; c171: "relatively susceptible" clone 171) were inoculated with an isolate of rot fungus Heterobasidion parviporum and simultaneously subjected to a drought stress recovery cycle. Fungal growth into the wood was generally higher in well-watered (W) than in drought-stressed (D) plants. As predawn water potential decreased, gas exchange and maximal photochemical efficiency of PSII also declined. Water potential and chlorophyll fluorescence showed differences between clones in D plants, c386 being more tolerant than c171, while stomatal conductance and net photosynthesis differed between clones in W plants; c171 showing higher values than c386. A recovery of physiological functions was observed after re-watering. The clones showed different constitutive monoterpene profiles. The infection generally caused some extensive compositional changes in the relative contents of several monoterpenes and their enantiomers; also, sterile infection (wounded only samples) affected the relative proportions of monoterpenes, although to a lesser extent than reactions elicited by the fungus. The trend in monoterpene response to disease treatments was the same in D and W plants of both clones. In particular, higher proportion of δ-3-carene was found constitutively in c386 in comparison with c171; besides, infection with H. parviporum increased the relative contents of δ-3-carene in all the samples, even if proportions of this monoterpene in wounded plus inoculated tissues of c386 were significantly higher than cortical tissues from non-inoculated branches only in W seedlings 44 days after treatment.Although drought stress decreased the total absolute contents of monoterpenes, total monoterpene concentrations significantly increased in response to infection by H. parviporum.

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“…All these changes can affect bird abundances and bird community composition. Climate change affects not only composition and configuration of forests (Bolte and Degen 2010) but also forest structure and the relative performance of tree species (Hanewinkel et al 2013), which may on the one hand amplify negative climate-related impacts on species' habitats but also offers additional potential for mitigation (Braunisch et al 2014). …”

Section: Scenarios On Forest Conversionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest conversion can help to mitigate impacts of climate change on common forest birds

Gottschalk¹,

Reiners

2015

Annals of Forest Science

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Abstract& Key message We forecasted the effects of climate change and forest conversion options on common forest bird species by employing nation-wide high-resolution models. The results give details on how, where, and for which species forest conversion can mitigate climate change effects. & Context To mitigate effects of climate change on forests, alterations are required to convert forests into less vulnerable forest types. Coniferous forest that has been cultivated extensively outside its natural range has been identified as being more vulnerable to climate change effects than deciduous forest. & Aims The aim is to evaluate the effect of climate change mitigation measures on biodiversity due to forest conversion. & Methods We generated five forest scenarios for Germany in which we systematically replaced coniferous with deciduous forest types. We forecasted the effects of climate change and forest conversion options on 25 forest bird species by employing high-resolution models to predict their current and future ranges and population size.& Results Our simulations and modeling approach clearly predicted that climate change has a stronger impact on populations compared to distribution areas of common forest bird species. Forest conversion was predicted to amplify (15 species) and to weaken (10 species) the predicted gains and losses of species' population size due to climate change. Using the total bird population size to evaluate the mitigation effect of the different forest scenarios, forest conversion below an elevation of 500 m a.s.l. was predicted to mitigate climate change effects by 0.3 million breeding pairs (−10 %). The relatively weak mitigation effect was mainly due to few generalist species that inhabit coniferous forests in large abundances and did not profit from a conversion to deciduous forests. & Conclusion The results of the study give details on how, where, and for which species forest conversion can mitigate the anticipated effects of climate change.

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Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land

Cited by 849 publications

References 21 publications

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes

Monoterpene responses to interacting effects of drought stress and infection by the fungus Heterobasidion parviporum in two clones of Norway spruce (Picea abies)

Forest conversion can help to mitigate impacts of climate change on common forest birds

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