Climate change, food stress, and security in Russia

Dronin, N.; Kirilenko, Andrei

doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0165-x

Cited by 44 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…First, the volatile climate conditions translate into volatile returns from agriculture in the absence of sound insurance systems to protect against production shortfalls (Dronin and Kirilenko, 2011;Bobojonov et al, 2014) and because Soviet-time irrigation systems have largely deteriorated. Irrigated cropland decreased from 2.3 to 0.9 Mha between 1990 and 2006, a decrease of 61% (ROSSTAT, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification

Schierhorn

Müller

Prishchepov

et al. 2014

Global Food Security

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a b s t r a c tRussia is a major player in the global wheat market, but extensive unused land resources and large yield gaps suggest that wheat production can be substantially increased. We combined time series of cultivated cropland, abandoned cropland and yield gap estimates to assess the potential production of wheat in European Russia. Current wheat production is constrained by volatile inter-annual precipitation patterns and low applications of nitrogen fertilizers. We demonstrate that modest increases in the crop productivity and the recultivation of the recently abandoned croplands could increase wheat production by 9-32 million tons under rainfed conditions. Increases in the wheat yields, particularly within the fertile black soil belt in southern European Russia, will contribute the major share of the prospective production increases. Frequently recurring droughts, likely exacerbated by future climate change, and adverse market conditions jeopardize the exploitation of the production potentials. Improved adaptation to the volatile climate conditions and substantial institutional and political reforms in the agricultural sector are necessary to leverage the agricultural production potential of Russia.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification

Schierhorn

Müller

Prishchepov

et al. 2014

Global Food Security

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“…South Asia (Lal 2010;Mirza 2010), Sahelian and northern Africa (Sissoko et al 2010), Ben Mohamed (2010), Mougou et al (2010), Iglesias et al (2010) and parts of Russia (Dronin and Kirilenko 2010) by the time global mean warming reaches around 2°C above preindustrial. Lal (2010) shows that India needs to increase its production by 1.5% per year to feed its developing and growing population, faster than historical experience, but faces likely net cereal production losses in South Asia due to climate change of 4-10% for a 2°C warming.…”

Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, Dronin and Kirilenko (2010) show that the existing administrative and institutional, as well as physical infrastructure in Russia will likely cause large problems for maintaining national food security and has historically contributed to famine in periods of drought. In Australia, (Steffen et al 2010) show producers and industries operate from a long experience of coping with highly variable climate, but identified two climatic features that the sector is highly vulnerable to: abrupt climate shifts and intensifying droughts (see Risbey 2010).…”

Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

et al. 2011

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Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Regional Environmental Change attempt to navigate this problem, by offering an overview of the latest scientific findings in the context of risks and uncertainties, and assess some key vulnerabilities that might lead to dangerous climate change. This synthesis provides an overview of the papers in this issue and looks at four areas of possible dangerous climate changeadverse declines in regional food and water security, loss of arctic sea ice with projected extinction of species, largescale sea-level rise and loss of coral reef systems. These issues affect a number of different regions including Africa, South Asia, and Small Island Developing States. Significant risks to vulnerable regions and systems at warming levels of 1.5-2°C above pre-industrial are identified. The direct effects of CO 2 concentration increases in terms of ocean acidification are identified as relevant to Article 2 because of the risks posed to coral reefs. Ultimate CO 2 stabilization levels that allow for the long-term viability of coral reefs likely are below 350 ppm. The paper concludes by arguing that the emission reduction pledges made by countries under the Copenhagen Accord will not suffice to prevent dangerous climate change.

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“…agricultural products, which is considered one of the major causes of the global food price hikes in 2010 (Wegren, 2011;Dronin and Kirilenko, 2011). Over the past two decades, drought has resulted in an annual grain production loss of more than 27 million tons in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%