The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification

Schierhorn, Florian; Müller, Daniel; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Faramarzi, Monireh; Balmann, Alfons

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2014.10.007

Cited by 77 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…This means that not only positive effects of abandonment on floral and faunal biodiversity (K€ ampf et al, 2016b;Weking et al, 2016), but also the implications of carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation have to be considered when the recultivation of abandoned croplands is under discussion. We agree with K€ uhling et al (2016) that sustainable intensification on existing croplands might be a better strategy to increase crop output compared to a complete recultivation of abandoned croplands (Schierhorn et al, 2014;Lamb et al, 2016). However, the outcomes for ecosystem services of both options need to be rigorously evaluated before management recommendations are to be made.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…We agree with Kühling et al . () that sustainable intensification on existing croplands might be a better strategy to increase crop output compared to a complete recultivation of abandoned croplands (Schierhorn et al ., ; Lamb et al ., ). However, the outcomes for ecosystem services of both options need to be rigorously evaluated before management recommendations are to be made.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

Wertebach

Hölzel

Kämpf

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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The break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered cropland abandonment on a continental scale, which in turn led to carbon accumulation on abandoned land across Eurasia. Previous studies have estimated carbon accumulation rates across Russia based on large-scale modelling. Studies that assess carbon sequestration on abandoned land based on robust field sampling are rare. We investigated soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks using a randomized sampling design along a climatic gradient from forest steppe to Sub-Taiga in Western Siberia (Tyumen Province). In total, SOC contents were sampled on 470 plots across different soil and land-use types. The effect of land use on changes in SOC stock was evaluated, and carbon sequestration rates were calculated for different age stages of abandoned cropland. While land-use type had an effect on carbon accumulation in the topsoil (0-5 cm), no independent land-use effects were found for deeper SOC stocks. Topsoil carbon stocks of grasslands and forests were significantly higher than those of soils managed for crops and under abandoned cropland. SOC increased significantly with time since abandonment. The average carbon sequestration rate for soils of abandoned cropland was 0.66 Mg C ha yr (1-20 years old, 0-5 cm soil depth), which is at the lower end of published estimates for Russia and Siberia. There was a tendency towards SOC saturation on abandoned land as sequestration rates were much higher for recently abandoned (1-10 years old, 1.04 Mg C ha yr ) compared to earlier abandoned crop fields (11-20 years old, 0.26 Mg C ha yr ). Our study confirms the global significance of abandoned cropland in Russia for carbon sequestration. Our findings also suggest that robust regional surveys based on a large number of samples advance model-based continent-wide SOC prediction.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

Wertebach

Hölzel

Kämpf

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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“…Hydrological models have been utilized at varying spatial scales to model the hydrology of agricultural areas of cold-climate countries such as Finland (Grizzetti et al, 2003;Knisel and Turtola, 2000), Russia (Schierhorn et al, 2014a, b), and Canada (Yang et al, 2014(Yang et al, , 2009). Overall, little research addressing specificities of agriculture in cold-region hydrology is available in the literature, although this activity is quite relevant in northern latitude regions such as the northern Great Plains (North America; Desaulniers and Gritzner, 2006;Wishart, 2004;Sharp, 1952;Li et al, 2010), northwestern Europe (Scandinavia; Parry et al, 1988), and northern Asia (Wang et al, 2002;Blanke et al, 2007). Important challenges remain in modelling the hydrology of northern latitude agricultural watersheds, such as integrated modelling of cropping systems and hydrology, representation of processes across spatial scales, and enhanced hydrologic connectivity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating cold-region hydrology in an intensively drained agricultural watershed in Manitoba, Canada, using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model

Cordeiro

Wilson

Vanrobaeys

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Etrophication and flooding are perennial problems in agricultural watersheds of the northern Great Plains. A high proportion of annual runoff and nutrient transport occurs with snowmelt in this region. Extensive surface drainage modification, frozen soils, and frequent backwater or icedamming impacts on flow measurement represent unique challenges to accurately modelling watershed-scale hydrological processes. A physically based, non-calibrated model created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was parameterized to simulate hydrological processes within a low slope, clay soil, and intensively surface drained agricultural watershed. These characteristics are common to most tributaries of the Red River of the north. Analysis of the observed water level records for the study watershed (La Salle River) indicates that ice cover and backwater issues at time of peak flow may impact the accuracy of both modelled and measured streamflows, highlighting the value of evaluating a non-calibrated model in this environment. Simulations best matched the streamflow record in years when peak and annual discharges were equal to or above the medians of 6.7 m 3 s −1 and 1.25 ×10 7 m 3 , respectively, with an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.76. Simulation of low-flow years (below the medians) was more challenging (average NSE < 0), with simulated discharge overestimated by 90 % on average. This result indicates the need for improved understanding of hydrological response in the watershed under drier conditions. Simulation during dry years was improved when infiltration was allowed prior to soil thaw, indicating the potential importance of preferential flow. Representation of in-channel dynamics and travel time under the flooded or ice-jam conditions should also receive attention in further model development efforts. Despite the complexities of the study watershed, simulations of flow for average to high-flow years and other components of the water balance were robust (snow water equivalency (SWE) and soil moisture). A sensitivity analysis of the flow routing model suggests a need for improved understanding of watershed functions under both dry and flooded conditions due to dynamic routing conditions, but overall CRHM is appropriate for simulation of hydrological processes in agricultural watersheds of the Red River. Falsifications of snow sublimation, snow transport, and infiltration to frozen soil processes in the validated base model indicate that these processes were very influential in stream discharge generation.

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“…), therefore they are likely to also contain the highest volumes of crop residues and larger BC emissions. A recent interest in expanding arable land through reclaiming Post-Soviet abandoned cropland (e.g., Schierhorn et al, 2014;Meyfroidt et al, 2016) and in particular, a large concentration of cropland in European Russia is located along the fertile Chernozem soil belt which stretches from the southern tip of Russia (43 • N, 44 • E) toward Moscow (55 • N, 37 • E)-a region with higher wheat yields, raises concerns for associated increase in BC deposition on Arctic snow. Although an expansion of cropped area does not necessarily lead to an increase in fire activity, it does give rise to an increased opportunity for burning crop residue in the regions of higher transport potential.…”

Section: Significance Of Bc Deposition From Cropland Burning On the Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Potential for Low-Level Transport of Black Carbon Emissions from Cropland Burning in Russia to the Snow-Covered Arctic

Hall

Loboda

2017

Front. Earth Sci.

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Short lived aerosols and pollutants transported from northern mid-latitudes have amplified the short term warming in the Arctic region. Among those black carbon is recognized as the second most important human emission in regards to climate forcing, behind carbon dioxide, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 Wm −2 . Studies have suggested that cropland burning may be a large contributor to the black carbon emissions which are directly deposited on the snow in the Arctic. However, commonly applied atmospheric transport models rely on estimates of black carbon emissions from cropland burning which are known to be highly inaccurate in both the amount and the timing of release. Instead, this study quantifies the potential for the deposition of hypothetical black carbon emissions from known cropland burning in Russia, identified by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire detections, through low-level transport to the snow in the Arctic using wind vectors from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ERA-Interim Reanalysis product. Our results confirm that Russian cropland burning is a potentially significant source of black carbon deposition on the Arctic snow in the spring despite the low injection heights associated with cropland burning. Approximately 10% of the observed spring (March-May) cropland active fires (7% annual) likely contribute to black carbon deposition on the Arctic snow from as far south as at least 40 • N. Furthermore, our results show that potential spring black carbon emissions from cropland burning in Russia can be deposited beyond 80 • N, however, the majority (∼90%-depending on injection height) of all potential spring deposition occurs below 75 • N.

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The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification

Cited by 77 publications

References 51 publications

Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

Simulating cold-region hydrology in an intensively drained agricultural watershed in Manitoba, Canada, using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model

Quantifying the Potential for Low-Level Transport of Black Carbon Emissions from Cropland Burning in Russia to the Snow-Covered Arctic

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