Climate change and dryland wheat systems in the US Pacific Northwest

Karimi, Tina; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Higgins, Stewart S.; Nelson, Roger

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.014

Cited by 28 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Therefore, more frequent droughts in the future need not directly translate to greater investment in new irrigation systems, and the rate of new investment will be generally slower than the increase in drought frequency and severity. Our results also indicate that the marginal benefit of water will not be the same in the future because climate change can decrease the potential yield of crops while increasing nonirrigated yield (Karimi et al, 2018). This reduces the yield gap and farmers' investment benefits.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…It also simulates nutrient, rotation, and tillage‐management decisions (Confalonieri & Bocchi, ; Donatelli et al, ). CropSyst has been evaluated and used for many crop types grown in different geographic and climatic conditions; for example, Karimi et al (, ) applied CropSyst to study the impact of climate change on dryland agriculture in the U.S.'s Pacific Northwest, Abi Saab et al () simulated barley production in Italy, Samperio et al () investigated the impact of climate change on plum trees in Spain, and Badini et al () studied pastures in Western Africa.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It also simulates nutrient, rotation, and tillage-management decisions (Confalonieri & Bocchi, 2005;Donatelli et al, 1997). CropSyst has been evaluated and used for many crop types grown in different geographic and climatic conditions; for example, Karimi et al (2017Karimi et al ( , 2018 Workflow of the Agricultural Spatial Economic Analysis Platform (ASEAP). VIC-CropSyst generates crop yield and streamflow, and the streamflow results are bias corrected using reconstructed flows and input to YAK-RW.…”

Section: Water Resources Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lower potential yield is explained mainly by higher temperatures, which shorten the growing season and reduce the time available for photosynthesis (Eitzinger et al, 2013;Karimi et al, 2018;Saadi et al, 2015). However, while the potential yield decreases, the nonirrigated yield for annual crops (e.g., wheat and potatoes) increases as a result of higher CO 2 concentrations (Karimi et al, 2018), which enhances photosynthesis through increased energy use efficiency (Lobell & Field, 2008;McGrath & Lobell, 2013) and water use efficiency (Battipaglia et al, 2013;Leakey et al, 2009). Irrigated crops also respond positively to CO 2 fertilization, but because the crops are fully irrigated, this gain is due to an increase in energy use efficiency rather than an increase in both water and energy use efficiencies.…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On the Yield Gapmentioning

confidence: 99%

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When Should Irrigators Invest in More Water‐Efficient Technologies as an Adaptation to Climate Change?

Malek

Adam

Stöckle

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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The western U.S. is expected to experience more frequent and severe droughts as a result of climate change, with potentially large impacts on agricultural production and the economy. Irrigated farmers have multiple options for minimizing the impact of drought including switching to more efficient irrigation technologies. More efficient technologies that increase the fraction of the water available to the crop root zone would allow farmers to maintain current production levels with less water. However, these systems are capital intensive. The objective of this study is to explore when (and under what climatic conditions) it makes economic sense for farmers to invest in new irrigation systems. We examine this in the Yakima River Basin in Washington State of the U.S. We use VIC‐CropSyst, a large‐scale grid‐based modeling framework that mechanistically simulates hydrologic and agricultural processes. Water supply simulated by VIC‐CropSyst drives a river system and water management model (YAK‐RW). A computational platform was developed to perform the economic analysis for each grid cell, crop type, and future climate scenario separately, which allowed us to explore whether the implementation of more efficient irrigation systems would be economically viable. Our results indicate that investing in a more efficient irrigation system improves agricultural economy of the Yakima River Basin (9% −25%). We also show that at the farm level, more significant droughts can provide economic incentives for investment up to a point. For severe climate change projections, droughts become frequent and severe enough that economic benefits of improving water use efficiency do not exceed investment costs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Water Resources Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Impacts On the Yield Gapmentioning

confidence: 99%

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When Should Irrigators Invest in More Water‐Efficient Technologies as an Adaptation to Climate Change?

Malek

Adam

Stöckle

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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“…Dryland cereal production in the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) takes place in the semiarid portion of Central Washington and the Columbia Plateau in Northeast Oregon and Northern Idaho [1]. This region produces around 17% of the national wheat harvest [2], which is primarily produced for a bulk commodity export market with over 90% of grains sold to Asia [3]. Wheat is the predominant cropping system in the iPNW but many producers in the region also grow small grains, peas, and canola [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest Wheat Farmers’ Perceived Risks: Motivating Intentions to Adapt to Climate Change?

Roesch‐McNally¹

2018

Environments

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The Regional Approaches to Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA) project was a USDA-National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) funded effort aimed at taking a comprehensive and interdisciplinary approach to understanding the implications of climate change on wheat and other cereal crop production in the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW). As part of this project, two comprehensive surveys of wheat producers were conducted in 2012/13 and 2015/16, which included questions concerning production practices, risk perception, and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper explores farmers' anticipated adaptive responses to climate change across five different adaptation strategies, including, cropping system, crop rotation, tillage practices, soil conservation practices, and crop insurance. This research examines whether farmers anticipate making little to no change or moderate to big changes to their production system in response to climate change and whether perceived economic and environmental risks motivate farmers' intentions to adapt to climate change. I found that a small percentage (18-28%) of respondents intend on taking moderate to big action in response to predicted climate change, across both surveys and all five adaptation strategies. Further, high levels of perceived economic and environmental risks, associated with climate change and positive attitudes towards adaptation, are motivating intentions to adapt.

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Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran

Saberali

Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani

Nasrabadi

2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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Climate change and dryland wheat systems in the US Pacific Northwest

Cited by 28 publications

References 34 publications

When Should Irrigators Invest in More Water‐Efficient Technologies as an Adaptation to Climate Change?

When Should Irrigators Invest in More Water‐Efficient Technologies as an Adaptation to Climate Change?

U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest Wheat Farmers’ Perceived Risks: Motivating Intentions to Adapt to Climate Change?

Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran

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