Abstract:The western U.S. is expected to experience more frequent and severe droughts as a result of climate change, with potentially large impacts on agricultural production and the economy. Irrigated farmers have multiple options for minimizing the impact of drought including switching to more efficient irrigation technologies. More efficient technologies that increase the fraction of the water available to the crop root zone would allow farmers to maintain current production levels with less water. However, these sy… Show more
“…The capabilities of YAK-RW, on the other hand, allow us to reasonably simulate impacts of water rights and the operation of water facilities. A comprehensive description of all of the components of the simulation tools used in this study can be found in Malek et al 14 . Fig.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this study, we focus on the Yakima River Basin (YRB; Supplementary Fig. 1 ), an agriculturally important and heavily irrigated snow-dependent river basin 13 , 14 in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Background on the YRB, including its regional context, and water rights structure can be found in the method section.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Although a broad body of literature has investigated this issue (readers can also see Supplementary Notes 3 ), the effectiveness of the yield-improving biophysical crop adaptations are not fully understood. The second mechanism where climate change impacts irrigated agriculture is the expected increase in the severity and frequency of droughts in snow-dependent areas 12 – 14 . In these basins, agriculture receives the majority of its summertime water supply from the melting of accumulated snowpacks.…”
Irrigated agriculture in snow-dependent regions contributes significantly to global food production. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in the snow-dependent Yakima River Basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest United States. Here we show that increasingly severe droughts and temperature driven reductions in growing season significantly reduces expected annual agricultural productivity. The overall reduction in mean annual productivity also dampens interannual yield variability, limiting yield-driven revenue fluctuations. Our findings show that farmers who adapt to climate change by planting improved crop varieties may potentially increase their expected mean annaul productivity in an altered climate, but remain strongly vulnerable to irrigation water shortages that substantially increase interannual yield variability (i.e., increasing revenue volatility). Our results underscore the importance for crop adaptation strategies to simultaneously capture the biophysical effects of warming as well as the institutional controls on water availability.
“…The capabilities of YAK-RW, on the other hand, allow us to reasonably simulate impacts of water rights and the operation of water facilities. A comprehensive description of all of the components of the simulation tools used in this study can be found in Malek et al 14 . Fig.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this study, we focus on the Yakima River Basin (YRB; Supplementary Fig. 1 ), an agriculturally important and heavily irrigated snow-dependent river basin 13 , 14 in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Background on the YRB, including its regional context, and water rights structure can be found in the method section.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Although a broad body of literature has investigated this issue (readers can also see Supplementary Notes 3 ), the effectiveness of the yield-improving biophysical crop adaptations are not fully understood. The second mechanism where climate change impacts irrigated agriculture is the expected increase in the severity and frequency of droughts in snow-dependent areas 12 – 14 . In these basins, agriculture receives the majority of its summertime water supply from the melting of accumulated snowpacks.…”
Irrigated agriculture in snow-dependent regions contributes significantly to global food production. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in the snow-dependent Yakima River Basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest United States. Here we show that increasingly severe droughts and temperature driven reductions in growing season significantly reduces expected annual agricultural productivity. The overall reduction in mean annual productivity also dampens interannual yield variability, limiting yield-driven revenue fluctuations. Our findings show that farmers who adapt to climate change by planting improved crop varieties may potentially increase their expected mean annaul productivity in an altered climate, but remain strongly vulnerable to irrigation water shortages that substantially increase interannual yield variability (i.e., increasing revenue volatility). Our results underscore the importance for crop adaptation strategies to simultaneously capture the biophysical effects of warming as well as the institutional controls on water availability.
“…Regional application of VIC-CropSyst in conjunction with a river system model (YAK-RW; Hubble, 2012;Zagona et al, 2001) and an economic model to simulate historical drought frequency (a), when the percentage of the water allocated for the irrigation season (i.e., proration rate) is lower than 70, 80, and 90 %. Panels (b) and (c) (Malek et al, 2017b) show the percentage of farmers (perennial crop growers) who invest in new efficient irrigation technologies in response to simulated droughts during the two decades of 1990-2000 (b) and 2050-2060 (c).…”
Section: Foundation For Integration Within Other Modeling Platformsmentioning
Abstract. Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC–CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC–CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC–CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land–atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC–CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.
“…Therefore, their impacts on water systems are of great concern to hydrologists and water managers alike. Over the past years, numerous climate impact studies have been launched to assess possible changes to hydrologic responses as a result of climate changes and their effects on human societies (Malek et al, 2018; Mekonnen et al, 2018; Pulido‐Velazquez et al, 2018; Roy et al, 2018; Yang et al, 2019). These studies mainly use two alternative approaches, top‐down and bottom‐up, as explained by Wilby and Dessai (2010) and Blöschl et al (2013).…”
The impacts of climate change and human activities are challenging water sustainability in many cities around the world. Advanced understanding of the future long‐term coevolution of coupled urban human‐water systems is of considerable interest in this context. This study uses a previously developed sociohydrologic model to explore the coevolutionary trajectories of Beijing City's human‐water system over the 2015–2099 period under possible climate changes. The effects of multiple human adaptive actions under alternative climate scenarios are investigated in particular. Results show that there might be a recurrent competition for water between humans and the natural environment (e.g., groundwater aquifer) in the long‐term future, indicating that effective water management needs to ensure that this competition remains within a safe operating space. Three regimes of the human‐environment competition are revealed, including a sustainable development regime in which human society and groundwater aquifer are both safe throughout their coevolutionary trajectories, a regime that may lead to severe population loss due to overaggressive population control actions, and a regime that may cause aquifer depletion due to under‐perception of the drawdown of groundwater table. Results also show that relying too much on interbasin water diversion project might slacken human water conservation measures and eventually cause more severe aquifer depletion in the long run. Maintaining a high community sensitivity to drawdown of groundwater table and moderate measures to control population growth are keys to avoid unintended, negative consequences.
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