Climate Change and Conservation in Brazil: CGE Evaluation of Health and Wealth Impacts

Abstract

Ecosystem services are public goods that frequently constitute the only source of capital for the poor, who lack political voice. As a result, provision of ecosystem services is sub-optimal and estimation of their values is complicated. We examine how econometric estimation can feed computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling to estimate health-related ecosystem values. Against a back drop of climate change, we analyze the Brazilian policy to expand National Forests (FLONAS) by 50 million hectares. Because these major environmental changes can generate spillovers in other sectors, we develop and use a CGE model that focuses on land and labor markets. Compared to climate change and deforestation in the baseline, the FLONAS scenario suggests relatively small declines in GDP, output (including agriculture) and other macro indicators. Urban households will experience declines in their welfare because they own most of the capital and land, which allows them to capture most of the deforestation benefits. In contrast, even though rural households have fewer opportunities for subsistence agriculture and face additional competition with other rural agricultural workers for more limited employment, their welfare improves due to health benefits from conservation of nearby forests. The efficiency vs. equity tradeoffs implied by the FLONAS scenario suggests that health-related ecosystem services will be underprovided if the rural poor are politically weaker than the urban rich. In conclusion, we briefly discuss the pros and cons of the CGE strategy for valuing ecosystem-mediated health benefits and evaluating contemporary policies on climate change mitigation.

Human health impacts of ecosystem alteration

“…New approaches that allow us to anticipate the health impacts of multiple, interacting environmental changes including resource scarcity, land-use change, and climate change should, in many instances, provide more realistic estimates than analyses that look at a particular change in isolation. Research in the Brazilian Amazon exploring multiple health outcomes associated with a combination of climate change and deforestation is one example of such work (106). Expanding research to factor in human responses and adaptations to environmental changes will also provide more realistic estimates of real world impacts of ecosystem alterations on human health, and some work has been achieved in this area (107,108).…”

Ecosystems and human health: The local benefits of forest cover in Indonesia

“…First, this paper employs a fixed-effects approach using panel data to estimate the effect of forest cover loss on the incidence of malaria. 1 Previous work has relied on random-effects (Bauch et al, 2015), cross-sectional analysis (e.g., Pattanayak et al (2010); Yasuoka and Levins (2007); see Bauhoff and Busch (2018) for a detailed re-view) or simulations (Laporta et al, 2013;Pattanayak et al, 2009). In contrast to these prior studies, the fixed effects specification removes time-invariant characteristics that could confound estimates.…”

Projeção de um cenário econômico e de desmatamento para a Amazônia Legal brasileira entre 2006 e 2030

“…Possui alguns avanços em relação a outros modelos que analisaram questões relacionadas à Amazônia e ao desmatamento, tais como Pattanayak et al (2009) e Cattaneo (2001. O primeiro é o tratamento do uso da terra em um modelo com dinâmica recursiva, permitindo analisar os impactos dos diferentes cenários ao longo do tempo e o ajuste endógeno 9 REGIA remete à planta aquática vitória-régia, típica da região da Amazônia.…”