Ecosystems and human health: The local benefits of forest cover in Indonesia

Garg, Teevrat

doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102271

Cited by 56 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…This is supported through the increased use of water containers both for domestic and industrial use, which provides breeding habitats for Aedes mosquitoes [19]. Deforestation also promotes multiplication of vectors by upsetting the ecological balance and reducing biodiversity [19,34]. Table 2 Regression coefficients, RRs and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial models for dengue cases from 2006 to 2016 in Sumatra…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

Husnina

Clements

Wangdi

2019

Tropical Med Int Health

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Objectives To describe and quantify spatiotemporal trends of dengue fever at district level in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia in relation to forest cover and climatic factors. Methods A spatial ecological study design was used to analyse monthly surveillance data of notified dengue fever cases from January 2006 to December 2016 in the 154 districts of Sumatra and 56 districts of Kalimantan. A multivariate, zero‐inflated Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive prior structure with posterior parameters estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with Gibbs sampling. Results There were 230 745 cases in Sumatra and 132 186 cases in Kalimantan during the study period. In Sumatra, the risk of dengue fever decreased by 9% (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.5–9.5%) for a 1% increase in forest cover and by 12.2% (95% CrI 11.9–12.6%) for a 1% increase in relative humidity. In Kalimantan, dengue fever risk fell by 17.6% (95% CrI 17.1–18.1%) for a 1% increase in relative humidity and rose by 7.6% (95% CrI 6.9–8.4%) for a 1 °C increase in minimum temperature. There was no significant residual spatial clustering in Sumatra after accounting for climate and demographic variables. In Kalimantan, high residual risk areas were primarily centred in North and East of the island. Conclusions Dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan was highly seasonal and associated with climate factors and deforestation. Incorporation of climate indicators into risk‐based surveillance might be warranted for dengue fever in Indonesia.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

Husnina

Clements

Wangdi

2019

Tropical Med Int Health

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“…Previous research has studied the opposite relation: the effect of environmental conditions on health. For example, UV radiation on COVID-19 transmission (Carleton, Cornetet, Huybers, Meng, & Proctor, 2020), forest loss on malaria and infectious diseases (Garg, 2019;Keesing et al, 2010). Numerous papers have used the yearly satellite data for regression analysis of deforestation before (Blackman, Goff, & Planter, 2018;Jung & Polasky, 2018;Berazneva & Byker, 2017;Alix-Garcia, Sims, & Yañez-Pagans, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Global Deforestation under Lockdown?

Saavedra

2020

SSRN Journal

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The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated responses by governments have halted economic activity abruptly across the world. The environment has benefited with reductions in pollution in urban areas, but what has happened in rural areas to deforestation has not been studied yet. A priori the effect is unclear: deforestation might decrease with the restrictions on economic activity. But it might have increased given the reductions in monitoring. I combine biweekly data from 70 countries covering the entire world's tropical forest with the dates each country started lockdown restrictions. Using difference-indifferences I find that, although deforestation is higher in 2020 compared to 2019, it is not driven by the lockdowns but rather by higher deforestation that precedes them. There is heterogeneity by the level of government effectiveness of the country: countries with effective governance experience a reduction in deforestation, probably because they can enforce the lockdown restrictions.

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“…If quantitative data for contextual factors (e.g. deforestation rate) are available they should be reviewed for quality and relevance for inclusion as a variable in evaluation analyses [18][19][20].…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating malaria programmes in moderate- and low-transmission settings: practical ways to generate robust evidence

Ashton

Prosnitz

Andrada

et al. 2020

Malar J

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Background: Many countries have made substantial progress in scaling-up and sustaining malaria intervention coverage, leading to more focalized and heterogeneous transmission in many settings. Evaluation provides valuable information for programmes to understand if interventions have been implemented as planned and with quality, if the programme had the intended impact on malaria burden, and to guide programmatic decision-making. Low-, moderate-, and heterogeneous-transmission settings present unique evaluation challenges because of dynamic and targeted intervention strategies. This paper provides illustration of evaluation approaches and methodologies for these transmission settings, and suggests how to answer evaluation questions specific to the local context. Methods:The Roll Back Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group formed a task force in October 2017 to lead development of this framework. The task force includes representatives from National Malaria Programmes, funding agencies, and malaria research and implementing partners. The framework builds on existing guidance for process and outcome evaluations and impact evaluations specifically in high transmission settings. Results:The theory of change describes how evaluation questions asked by national malaria programmes in different contexts influence evaluation design. The transmission setting, existing stratification, and data quality and availability are also key considerations. The framework is intended for adaption by countries to their local context, and use for evaluation at sub-national level. Confirmed malaria incidence is recommended as the primary impact indicator due to its sensitivity to detect changes in low-transmission settings. It is expected that process evaluations provide sufficient evidence for programme monitoring and improvement, while impact evaluations are needed following adoption of new mixes of interventions, operational strategies, tools or policies, particularly in contexts of changing malaria epidemiology. Impact evaluations in low-, moderate-, or heterogeneous-transmission settings will likely use plausibility designs, and methods highlighted by the framework include interrupted time series, district-level doseresponse analyses, and constructed control methods. Triangulating multiple data sources and analyses is important to strengthen the plausibility argument. Conclusions:This framework provides a structure to assist national malaria programmes and partners to design evaluations in low-, moderate-or heterogeneous-transmission settings. Emphasizing a continuous cycle along the causal pathway linking process evaluation to impact evaluation and then programmatic decision-making, the © The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and in...

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Ecosystems and human health: The local benefits of forest cover in Indonesia

Cited by 56 publications

References 29 publications

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

Is Global Deforestation under Lockdown?

Evaluating malaria programmes in moderate- and low-transmission settings: practical ways to generate robust evidence

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