Climate change: a friend or foe to food security in Africa?

Abstract

Extreme climate change is posing an increasing threat to human welfare across countries. Specifically, the devastating floods coupled with the looming spectre of drought are argued to explain cross-country differences in food security. While the debate continues and uncertainties about the precise influence of climate change on food security linger, the question of whether climate change plays a pivotal role in increased hunger and food insecurity across countries remains unanswered. This study presented new evidence of the role of climate change in Africa's food security. We utilised the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to analyse climate change trends. We also employed the pooled mean group technique and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to investigate the effect of climate change on food security in 15 African countries between 1970 and 2016. Our empirical findings revealed three things. First, rainfall plays a decisive role in Africa's food security when examined broadly. However, the significance of the effect of rainfall varied substantially across the 15 countries. Second, we find no robust impact of temperature on food security in the long run. However, the short-run results showed that extreme temperatures impede food security, with varying magnitudes across countries. Third, except for rainfall, a bidirectional causality exists between food security and temperature in Africa. Given the risks associated with rain-fed agriculture, we argue that African countries need to limit their dependence on rain-fed agriculture to boost food production.

Challenges of food security in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: an empirical analysis of fixed and random effects

“…This result confirmed by Molotoks et al [30] that population growth affects food availability. In contrast with Arabic countries, Devesh and Affendi [15], find that food security is significantly affected by the population growth rate in Oman, and rising population growth positively influences food security in Algeria [62].…”

Reversing Years for Global Food Security: A Review of the Food Security Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

“…Many of Africa’s poorest countries rely heavily on agriculture for their economies, and climate change is widely recognized as one of the greatest threats to agricultural output and food security in the 21st century [ 14 ]. Some parts of Africa (the Sahel, for example), have been drier over the last century, and it is predicted that the continent will face a steeper rise in temperature than the rest of the world [ 90 ] Considering that around 96% of food production in Sub-Saharan Africa relies on rain for irrigation, this region is very susceptible to the effects of climate change [ 89 ]. Temperature increases of 1 °C have been linked to a 2.66% decrease in agricultural output in SSA nations [ 91 ], which in turn has been shown to reduce economic growth by an average of 1.3 percentage points for each degree of warming.…”

“…Some African countries, for instance, could see a 50% drop in crop productivity by 2030 and a 90% drop in crop income by 2100 as a result of significant climate change and variability [ 92 ]. Other research indicates that national and household food security in underdeveloped nations has already decreased as a result of climate change [ 90 ]. It is possible that climatic extremes would affect the availability of food in Africa by lowering the area of viable arable land appropriate for crop production [ 93 ].…”

Understanding Needs and Potentials for Gender-Balanced Empowerment and Leadership in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Africa

“…The key topics discussed that pertained to climate change-gender in leadership/empowerment were those related to agriculture, food security, vulnerability, adaptation mechanisms, resilience, gender gaps and differences. The prominence of 'agriculture' and related issues is apparent, due to the multiple threats that climate change poses to the sector, including threats to wellbeing, livelihood and food security [97][98][99][100]. Furthermore, the rural population, which comprises, on average, about 52% of the total population in Africa [101] and mainly relies on agricultural activities, is becoming more vulnerable, particularly women who are poorer and have less access to, e.g., financial and natural resources, knowledge and information, limited or no land ownership rights, and lower adaptive and coping capacities [45,102,103].…”