Citizen science helps predictions of climate change impact on flowering phenology: A study on Anemone nemorosa

Puchałka, Radosław; Klisz, Marcin; Koniakin, Serhii; Czortek, Patryk; Dylewski, Łukasz; Paź-Dyderska, Sonia; Vítková, Michaela; Sádlo, Jiřı́; Rašomavičius, Valerijus; Čarni, Andraž; Sanctis, Michele De; Dyderski, Marcin K.

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109133

Cited by 22 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Over the past decades, phenology turned out to be the dominant form of defining the 'growing season', and also became mainstream in the climate change research community, including meteorological services, remote sensing (continental ‘greening’) and citizen science programs (e.g., Cleland et al, 2007; Piao et al, 2019; Puchałka et al, 2022; Tang et al, 2016). In this perspective, we aimed at explaining that this phenology‐based approach at defining the growing season covers one specific aspect only, namely the one related to visible markers of seasonal above‐ground plant development.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Four ways to define the growing season

2023

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What is addressed as growing season in terrestrial ecosystems is one of the main determinants of annual plant biomass production globally. However, there is no well‐defined concept behind. Here, we show different facets of what might be termed growing season, each with a distinct meaning: (1) the time period during which a plant or a part of it actually grows and produces new tissue, irrespective of net carbon gain (growing season sensu stricto). (2) The period defined by developmental, that is, phenological markers (phenological season). (3) The period during which vegetation as a whole achieves its annual net primary production (NPP) or a net ecosystem production (NEP), expressed as net carbon gain (productive season) and (4) the period during which plants could potentially grow based on meteorological criteria (meteorological season). We hypothesize that the duration of such a ‘window of opportunity’ is a strong predictor for NPP at a global scale, especially for forests. These different definitions have implications for the understanding and modelling of plant growth and biomass production. The common view that variation in phenology is a proxy for variation in productivity is misleading, often resulting in unfounded statements on potential consequences of climatic warming such as carbon sequestration.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Four ways to define the growing season

2023

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“…Evidence suggests that climatic changes will significantly, and in some cases irreversibly, harm the economy and many ecosystems alike (Willetts et al 2010) . Widely available maps of current and future climatic conditions and the rapidly increasing number of species observations in scientific and citizen science databases allow for increasingly extensive studies of spatio-temporal changes in species distributions (Puchałka et al 2021(Puchałka et al , 2022. Species distribution modeling is a widely used tool for predicting potential changes in the distribution range of plant and animal species and detecting niche shifts with climate change (Guisan and Thuiller 2005;Hill et al 2017;Dyderski et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

et al. 2022

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Climate change is an important driver of the spread of apiary pests and honeybee predators. These impact on one of the economically most important pollinators and thus pose serious threats to the functioning of both natural ecosystems and crops. We investigated the impact of the predicted climate change in the periods 2040–2060 and 2060–2080 on the potential distribution of the European beewolf Philanthus triangulum, a specialized honeybee predator. We modelled its potential distribution using the MaxEnt method based on contemporary occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. Our model had an overall good performance (AUC = 0.864) and the threshold of occurrence probability, assessed as the point with the highest sum of sensitivity and specificity, was at 0.533. Annual temperature range (69.5%), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (12.4%), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (7.9%) were the principal bioclimatic variables significantly affecting the potential distribution of the European beewolf. We predicted the potential distribution shifts within two scenarios (optimistic RPC4.5 and pessimistic RCP8.5) and three Global Circulation Models (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-SM-LR). Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios showed that climate change will significantly increase the availability of European beewolf potential niches. Losses of potential niches will only affect small areas in southern Europe. Most of the anticipated changes for the period 2060–2080 will already have occurred in 2040–2060. The predicted range expansion of European beewolf suggests that occurrence and abundance of this species should be monitored.

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“…Field photographs are thus invaluable for complementing physical vouchers and contributing towards an ‘extended specimen’ (Lendemer et al ., 2020) by capturing information such as growth habit, orientation of leaves or branchlets and colour, which, in some cases, cannot be retrospectively determined from pressed specimens (Heberling & Isaac, 2018). Field photographs, especially those from citizen science datasets, are also increasingly being utilised in largescale trait‐based research, with plant images already used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on phenology (Puchałka et al ., 2022), delineate unusual flowering events (Barve et al ., 2020) and map global trait patterns (Wolf et al ., 2022). With 136 unphotographed Australian species listed as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable under the Environment Protection Biodiversity Conservation Act (Table S11), it is possible that some Australian species may go extinct without ever being photographed in the field.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Photographs as an essential biodiversity resource: drivers of gaps in the vascular plant photographic record

et al. 2023

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The photographic record is increasingly becoming an important biodiversity resource for primary research and conservation monitoring. However, globally, there are important gaps in this record even in relatively well-researched floras.To quantify the gaps in the Australian native vascular plant photographic record, we systematically surveyed 33 sources of well-curated species photographs, assembling a list of species with accessible and verifiable photographs, as well as the species for which this search failed.Of 21 077 Australian native species, 3715 lack a verifiable photograph across our 33 surveyed resources. There are three major geographic hotspots of unphotographed species in Australia, all far from current population centres. Many unphotographed species are small in stature or uncharismatic, and many are also recently described.The large number of recently described species without accessible photographs was surprising. There are longstanding efforts in Australia to organise the plant photographic record, but in the absence of a global consensus to treat photographs as an essential biodiversity resource, this has not become common practice. Many recently described species are small-range endemics and some have special conservation status. Completing the botanical photographic record across the globe will facilitate a virtuous feedback loop of more efficient identification, monitoring and conservation.

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Citizen science helps predictions of climate change impact on flowering phenology: A study on Anemone nemorosa

Cited by 22 publications

References 89 publications

Four ways to define the growing season

Four ways to define the growing season

European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

Photographs as an essential biodiversity resource: drivers of gaps in the vascular plant photographic record

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